Final Score Picks and Predictions For Tonight's Big Game Between the Hawks and the Bucks

Tonight is a big game for the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament race.

The Atlanta Hawks, who come into tonight's game tied for the Hornets for 9th place in the East, face the Milwaukee Bucks on the road. Milwaukee comes into this game four games behind the Hawks for the last spot in the play-in tournament. If the Hawks win tonight, they will be five games ahead of the Bucks and will need one more win vs Milwaukee to earn the tiebreaker over Atlanta. With Giannis Antetokounmpo retrurning, it feels like it is now or never for the Bucks.

As for Atlanta, they are not only trying to hold off the Bucks for the play-in spot, Atlanta is trying to catch the 76ers (who they play on Saturday) for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and they enter tonight's game 2.5 games behind Philly.

Who wins?

In six games since the 2026 NBA All-Star break, the Hawks own a record of 5-1 (.833%), including riding a four-game winning streak. Atlanta's .833 winning % is the second-best in the East over that time ... Since the break, Atlanta leads the NBA in defensive rating, owning a 102.1 drtg. Over those six outings, the Hawks are averaging 118.2 points, 53.2 rebounds, 29.5 assists and 10.2 steals, winning by an average of +12.5 points. Atlanta's +12.5 point differential is the fourth-best in the league over that time.

In 14 games played together (108 total minutes), Atlanta's five-man lineup of CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu owns a net rating of 23.0. Per NBA.com/Stats, of all five-man lineups who have played in 100+ minutes together, Atlanta's five-man lineup of McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Johnson, and Okongwu owns the fourth-best net rating in the NBA.

Atlanta enters Wednesday's game off a 135-101 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on 3/1 inside State Farm Arena. In the team's three games during the week of 2/23 (2/23-3/1), Atlanta's defense allowed just 98.3 points, while outscoring its opponent by +28.3 points per game. In their win on 3/1, the Hawks dished out 36 assists, marking their league-leading 38th 30-assist performance of the season. The club is averaging a league-leading 30.4 helpers per game this season, on pace to be the seventh-most assists per game in a single season in NBA history.

In Atlanta's most recent victory on 3/1, forward Jonathan Kuminga tallied 20 points on 7-10 shooting from the field, 1-2 from deep, 5-7 from the free throw line, in addition to seven rebounds, three assists and two steals in 25 minutes off the bench. In his three games as a Hawk, the 6-7 forward is averaging 21.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.7 steals in 26.4 minutes of action.

Per Elias Sports, Kuminga is just the fourth Hawk in franchise history to average at least 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 steals in his first three games with the club, joining Glenn Robinson (2002-03), Antoine Walker (2004-05), and Dominique Wilkins (1982-83). He owns a total +/- of +59 in his first three games with the team, the best in a player's first three games with the Hawks since at least 1997-98 (play-by-play era) and the best by any player in the NBA since OG Anunoby with the Knicks (+74).

Over Atlanta's four-game winning streak, Dyson Daniels has dished out 33 total assists (averaging 8.3 assists per game), while committing just two turnovers. Daniels is just the second player in the NBA this season to total 30+ assists and two-or-fewer turnovers over a four-game span (Davion Mitchell: 11/29/25-12/5/29) and just the third Hawk to do so in franchise history, joining Doc Rivers (3/29/89-4/4/89) and Spud Webb (2/13/88-2/19/88).

Jalen Johnson enters Wednesday's game averaging 22.7 points, 10.6 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 1.3 steals in 35.1 minutes. Johnson is on pace to become just the fifth player in NBA history to average at least 22.0 points, 10.0 boards, and 7.0 helpers in a single season, joining Nikola Jokic (5x, on pace for 6x), Oscar Robertson (3x), Russell Westbrook (4x), and Wilt Chamberlain (2x). Johnson is set to join Robertson as the only other player in NBA history to hit those averages under the age of 25.

This is an important game for both teams, and this will be a tougher test for the Hawks than their recent four-game stretch. The Bucks know that there is a lot on the line in this game, but I just think the Hawks are a better team than the Bucks, even with Antetokounmpo back. Jalen Johnson has a big game tonight and the Hawks come away with an even bigger lead for the play-in spot than they came into the night with.

Final Score: Hawks 121, Bucks 114