New Win-Loss Prediction For Atlanta Does Not Bode Well For Their Postseason Aspirations

What will the Hawks final record be?

Jan 31, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) holds the ball while Indiana Pacers guard/forward Aaron Nesmith (23) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

At the All-Star Break, the Atlanta Hawks find themselves with 26-30 record, good enough for 10th in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta looked to be turning a corner a few games ago when they were 26-27 and in prime position to end the Hornets winning streak. However, the Hawks lost their last three games before the break, including two to the Hornets, which allowed them to jump Atlanta in the standings and give them the tiebreaker.

So how will the Hawks end their season?

New Projection

Understandably, the Hawks are not viewed as a team that is going to make a big run towards the postseason. Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes predicted the Hawks will finish with a below .500 record at the end of the year:

Preseason Prediction: 46-36

Dec. 1 Prediction: 45-37

"Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis are both gone, which lowers the upside of an Atlanta Hawks team that has played break-even ball since Dec. 26.

Jalen Johnson, a first-time All-Star, probably isn't capable of carrying Atlanta to the 46 wins we originally predicted, particularly with the shooting drain that occurred when both Vit Krejci and Luke Kennard departed at the trade deadline. Buddy Hield should help in that regard, but it's anyone's guess as to how much or how well Jonathan Kuminga will play as he tries to rehabilitate his value down the stretch.

The Hawks have one of the easier remaining schedules, and they don't have any real reason to tank because they control the New Orleans Pelicans' 2026 first-rounder. That said, it's hard to see a ton of improvement from an Atlanta squad that has rated a bit below average in both offensive and defensive efficiency to this point."

The Hawks have been a below average team for the entire season, but they have one possible wildcard that could improve them. The Hawks big move at the trade deadline was sending Kristaps Porzingis to the Golden State Warriors for Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield. Hield is not expected to be a big part of the rotation going forward, but Kuminga has enough talent to make you wonder if he could really give the Hawks a boost. It could also go poorly.

At 10th in the standings, Atlanta is currently a half game behind Charlotte for 9th, three back from Miami for 8th, 3.5 back from Orlando for 7th, and five games back from Philly for 6th.

A key thing to note about the Hawks for the rest of the season is that they have the fourth-easiest schedule left. Another thing to remember is that they already have two wins over Philly and Orlando, as well as one over the Heat. With those three teams above the Hawks in the standings, those games are going to stand out the rest of the way, and Atlanta could still win the season series against each of those teams and earn the tiebreaker. While it might seem far fetched based on their recent play, there is a faint chance that the Hawks could sneak into the top six. Unlikely, but possible.

Atlanta resumes its regular season on Thursday in Philadelphia.