Updated NBA Playoff Picture: Hawks Inch Closer to Clinching Top Six Seed After Dominant Win vs Magic

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The surge continues for the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta has now won 17 of their last 19 games and with some help last night from the Sacramento Kings, they are inching closer to sealing up a spot in the NBA playoffs. The Hawks were 27-31 at one point after the All-Star break, but now they are 44-33 and look like the team that nobody wants to face in the first round of the playoffs.
There were a few games that impacted the Eastern Conference race last night. Atlanta beat Orlando, Sacramento beat Toronto, and Boston beat Miami. With those results, Miami and Orlando look to be locked into the play-in tournament, while the Hawks now have an advantage for getting the No.5 seed.
Here is how the odds shifted on ESPN's BPI (basketball power index) after last night's games:
Team | Playoff Odds | Top Six Odds | Play-In Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Hawks | 99.2% | 94.4% | 5.6% |
Toronto Raptors | 86.2% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Philadelphia 76ers | 83.1% | 44% | 56% |
Charlotte Hornets | 62.5% | 4.8% | 95.2% |
Orlando Magic | 36.2% | 1.8% | 98.2% |
Miami Heat | 32.8% | 4.7% | 95.3% |
Top Six Within Reach

While nothing is locked in yet, the Hawks are overwhelming favorites to get into the top six of the playoff seeding. Atlanta has five games, with one of them being against the tanking Nets tomorrow night in Brooklyn. Assuming Atlanta wins that one, they will be at a huge advantage with four games to go.
No. 5 is probably as high as the Hawks can go, barring some sort of stunning collapse from the Cavaliers. While the Hawks do play the Cavs twice before the end of the season, Cleveland has as favorable of a schedule to end the season as you can hope for. It would take the Hawks winning the rest of their games while the Cavs lose a couple they are not expected to.
The most likely playoff matchups for the Hawks right now are the Cavaliers and the Knicks. New York remains 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the standings, but they have a tougher road to end the season, assuming that all the teams they play actually play their starters and don't rest anyone. If the Hawks were to stumble over the last five games, it could open the door for them to finish at No. 7 and then face the possibility of facing Boston in the first round.
Last night's win was huge for the team and they continue to build momentum and take care of their business. It remains to be seen how far they would be able to go in the playoffs given how competitive the Eastern Conference, but they are a team that nobody in the top four would want to play right now.

Jackson Caudell has been a publisher at the On SI network for four years and has extensive knowledge covering college athletics and the NBA. Jackson is also the co-host of the Bleav in Georgia Tech podcast, and he loves to bring thoughtful analysis and comprehensive coverage to everything that he does. Find him on X @jacksoncaudell
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