What the Atlanta Hawks Draft Pick Projections Mean Heading Into the NBA Draft Lottery

One of the first major dominoes of the 2026 NBA Offseason is going to drop on Sunday when the NBA holds its annual draft lottery. This year's lottery is highly anticipated due to the top-end talent in this draft and for the Atlanta Hawks, they are hoping to add an elite talent to this already promising young core of players that they have on their roster.

The Hawks might have been in the playoffs, but they have a chance to win this draft lottery thanks to making one of the best moves of last summer, acquiring an unprotected 2026 pick that is the most favorable of the Pelicans (7th in draft odds) and Bucks (10th in draft odds) selection. Hawks general manager Onsi Saleh made this move last summer, and now the Hawks could be one of the big winners of draft on Sunday.

Let's break down the Hawks percentages in the Lottery on Sunday and what they mean.

Projections

Here are the where the Hawks could be picking after the lottery along with the percentage chance:

No. 1- 9.7% chance
No. 2- 9.9% chance
No. 3- 10.1% chance
No. 4- 10.37% chance
No. 7- 9.88% chance
No. 8- 31.71% chance
No. 9- 16.14% chance
No. 10- 2.04% chance
No. 11- 0.06% chance

Due to the combined odds, the Hawks have better odds to land in the top four or get the No. 1 pick than if they were just at No. 7 or at No. 10.

In total, the Hawks have a 40% chance to jump into the top four and a 60% chance that their pick is going to land somewhere outside of the top four, most likely at either No. 8 or No. 9.

What do the Hawks do?

If they jump into the top four, I think the choices are going to be pretty clear and that the Hawks are not going to stray far from the consensus.

If they land at No. 1, the pick will likely be either BYU's AJ Dybantsa or Kansas guard Darryn Peterson. These two players would fit perfectly into what the Hawks are trying to build and would be home run additions. Dybantsa is the favorite to go No. 1, but I think Peterson deserves some consideration.

If the pick lands at No. 2, I think they will take Peterson, assuming whoever lands at No.1 takes Dybantsa.

At No. 3, there is an interesting debate to be had with Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson. There have been reports about Wilson being higher on draft boards than most think, but Boozer continues to land at No. 3 in most mock drafts. Both players would be interesting fits on the Hawks considering that both players are power forwards and Jalen Johnson is also a four and any of these three players likely couldn't play another position. That is more of a future facing question for the team, but one to keep in mind.

At No. 4, it is fairly simple. Take whichever of Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or Wilson is still on the board.

When you get to No. 7, that is where it gets tricky. There are four guards (Darius Acuff, Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, and Mikel Brown Jr) that are expected to go in this range and the Hawks would have their choice of two of them. At No. 8, I think Atlatna would just take whichever one is left over.

If Atlanta falls to No. 9, 10, or 11, the board becomes wide open. This is where the first talent dropoff happens in this draft and it would also be a potential trade down spot for the Hawks, like they did in last year's draft. At those three spots, Brayden Burries (Arizona), Aday Mara (Michigan), Labaron Philon Jr (Alabama), Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan), and others could be the choices.

The Hawks are hoping they can strike gold in this lottery and earn a top four pick, but wherever they land, they are going to have a chance to bring in a blue chip prospect to help build this team.

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