Bettors like Miami Heat less than last season

The Miami Heat believe they have a shot at surprising people this season, with a younger roster, more cohesion and an Eastern Conference in flux.

But thus far, the bettors aren't buying it.

The Miami Heat's over-under for wins still tends to be between 37.5 and 38.5, depending on the sports book in question.

At BetOnline.ag, the number is 38.5, which is 1.5 more wins than the Heat had last season, but six fewer than the total at that same outlet at this time last year.

And since the number hasn't moved much, it's apparent that most bettors believe the 38.5 is about right. That would likely land the Heat in the play-in for the fourth straight season, not a place they would like to be.

Why is sentiment so down, even as some analysts have projected the Heat could squeeze into the top six in the East? Likely because the Heat don't have a leading light anymore, not without Jimmy Butler, though Butler wasn't all that much help last season prior to forcing a trade.

The rest of the rotation looks potentially superior to what Erik Spoelstra had at his disposal last season -- Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins all weren't with Miami at the start of last season, and it seems as if Kel'el Ware and Nikola Jovic have improved in some ways. The team is far less reliant on Terry Rozier, whose poor play sabotaged Miami in many games.

Plus, Spoelstra -- officially introduced Thursday as the U.S. men's basketball coach -- has been acting refreshed, after a season of controversy that took a toll.

Will all of this translate to a better record?

If it does, it will pay off for the few, true believers.

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