Every Miami Heat Draft Lottery Outcome, Ranked by Probability and Who They Could Target

The May 10 NBA Draft lottery draw is officially less than a week away and the Miami Heat look to propel into the top 4 for the first time since 2008 when they drafted Michael Beasley.

But the problem for Miami is they were a middling team yet again, putting them in a position where they are likely to be picking in the same slot that they drafted Tyler Herro from. Miami' scouting and talent development department make it so that Miami's draft position isn't the biggest issue, yet propelling into the top 4 could catapult this franchise forward.

So here are the potential selection spots and their probability, as you also may want to explore a mock draft on OnSI.

14th Overall 2.3% Chance

The Miami Heat's lowest possible drafting position is 14th, and it comes with a 2.3% chance. This is because to drop a spot, the Charlotte Hornets would have to propel from 14th all the way to the top 4 of this NBA Draft, something that they have a 2.3% chance of doing.

Miami has drafted a franchise altering talent in this position before, that being Bam Adebayo. The 14th overall pick would give them a wide array of options including one prospect highly connected to the Heat, Yaxel Lendeborg.

13th Overall 92.9% Chance

Miami is most likely to land 13th; this is where they finished in the standings and likely where they will land in the draft. This is the unfortunate part about being a middling team.

Lendeborg, Cameron Carr, Tounde Yessoufou, Isaiah Evans and Labaron Philon Jr, are among the names to watch at 13 and 14.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks predicts Kawhi Leonard will be moved to the Miami Heat this summer:

“The Heat would retain the No. 13 pick in June's draft, along with 10 players from this season's team, including Bam Adebayo. And because they are taking back less money in the trade, Miami… pic.twitter.com/drUV7wLFyY
— SleeperHoops (@Sleeper_Hoops) May 6, 2026

4th Overall 1.4% Chance

The most likely position should the Heat get lucky is 4th. If Miami is to select fourth, they will likely be able to select one of Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, or Caleb Wilson. With Aj Dybantsa looked at as the unanimous number one option, one of these three would be there at 4, and then Miami could also look at any other option and select them as they please as they wouldn't have been able to draft them at 13 or 14.

Miami selected Glen Rice 4th in 1989.

If Miami lands 4th and their guy gets selected, could they move the pick?

3rd Overall 1.2% Chance

3rd Overall is a place that the Miami Heat have never drafted from. The 3rd selection would give them even more of a chance to get their guy.

2nd Overall 1.1% Chance

Pick your poison if you get the second overall pick. Anyone that's not named AJ Dybantsa is likely available and the Heat would be able to get their guy to pair with Bam Adebayo and company.

2nd is the highest Miami has selected in their franchise history when they selected Michael Beasley

1st Overall 1.0% Chance

Boom, Miami's miracle comes true. They instantly have the most valuable pick in the draft, can select who they deem the best player in the class, or potentially move the pick in their hunt for a whale.

Imagine the Miami HEAT actually jumping from No. 13 to No. 1 in the Draft Lottery

Bleacher Report ran a lottery simulation that ended with Miami landing the top pick and selecting AJ Dybantsa out of BYU.

B/R: "A 6'9" elite scoring wing next to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro would… https://t.co/XhgokpNwO7 pic.twitter.com/TLyJT4sjoN
— Heat Diehards (@HeatDiehards) May 6, 2026

Top 4 Overall Odds 4.7% Chance

The Heat jumping into the top 4 isn't likely, but it seems like this maybe could be the year they move up. Whether or not you believe in certain things, it just seems like Miami may finally be awarded for their winning efforts year after year.

Miami would instantly have one of the best trade packages should they land in the top 4.

No matter the result on May 10th, the Heat have proven capable of selecting game changers at every position, now just imagine if they jump into the top 4.

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