Erik Spoelstra must reverse a trend this season

Erik Spoelstra understands the expectation, internally in the Miami Heat organization and externally in the fan base, if not always in the national media:

Win.

Spoelstra has 787 regular season, and 193 playoff wins, in 17 seasons. That has come with six NBA Finals appearances and two championships. His postseason winning percentage (.570) is almost as high as his regular season winning percentage (.579), which is a feat few coaches can claim. Now the longest-tenured coach in the NBA, Spoelstra is coming off 11 losses in his last 12 playoff games. Three of those came in the 2023 NBA Finals, but the next eight came in demolitions by Boston (with Jimmy Butler injured) and Cleveland (after Jimmy Butler was traded) the past two postseasons.

The fewest games he's ever won over a three-game stretch is 123; a 41-41 record on average. In other words, he's never had losing record over three seasons. But after finishing 83-81 over the past two seasons, his current team will need to exceed its projected win total (roughly 38 at most Las Vegas sportsbooks) for him to avoid a losing record over the most recent 3-season stretch.

Spoelstra naturally should have no concerns about job security if he falls short this season; he's just three seasons into an eight-year contract, and the Miami front office remains committed to him. He has more input in personnel decisions than he did in his earlier seasons, and the front office has trusted him to shape the coaching staff.

Still, this season will be a test. He starts it with one of his youngest rosters, and without top scorer Tyler Herro for a month. Spoelstra has never won a Coach of the Year award, but this would be the time, if he can somehow squeeze out 50 victories. You know the defense will be there, but can he find enough offense without a 1-on-1 threat, and after years in the bottom half of the offensive rankings?

That's his challenge, starting October 1, as training camp opens in Boca Raton.

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