What the Miami Heat Must Do Now to Escape the Play-In

The Miami Heat were in a great position just two weeks ago. They are the 5th seed, they were beating top teams like the Rockets and Pistons, handling business against the tanking teams, and they looked like a team that was ready to stake their claim as a top-5 seed in the East.

Now, Miami has lost 6 of their last 7 since Tyler Herro and Norman Powell have both shared the floor and a play-in escape is looking more like a wish.

The Heat are now 6-12 this season when Tyler Herro and Norman Powell both play.

The Heat are a middling team. For them to win big, everything has to go right--and in the NBA, that’s rarely an honest reality. Kel'el Ware won't give you his best every night; Powell and Herro won't always combine for ten triples. They are a team that can beat anyone on any given night, but—infuriatingly—they can also lose to anyone.

Bam Adebayo’s full thoughts on tonight’s loss👀

“We didn’t come out with a disposition about ourselves…we didn’t treat this like a playoffs series and we should.”

“It’s going to take difficult times to do it but at this point our backs against the wall.”

(via Miami Heat YT) pic.twitter.com/wTD450OvUr
— The HEAT Realm (@WadexFlash) March 28, 2026

They don't have a true closer, they don't have an offensive alpha, they are just a team that on any given night can beat any team, but they can also lose to any team. That's the frustrating part about it.

So Why 45 Wins?

The Heat currently sit at 39-35, they have 8 games left and are 2.5 games back of a play-in escape. The nice thing about the Heat's remaining schedule is that they will have a chance to do some of the work by themselves as they play the 76ers, Raptors x2, and the Hawks in their season finale. All three of these teams are ahead of Miami and wins versus the Hawks and 76ers would secure the tie breakers.

Talked to Bam Adebayo about the back and forth with Spo tonight regarding his minutes:

“I get he’s trying to protect me from myself. But also, I don’t want to be in the f*ckin play-in.”
— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) March 24, 2026

So 45 wins would then seem high since Miami has the chance to do the job themselves, right. Well no.

The Raptors already have 41 wins with games against the tanking Kings, Grizzlies and Nets left.

The Magic have 39 wins with the Pelicans, Mavericks and Bulls on deck. They also have matchups against Atlanta and Toronto meaning one team ahead of Miami has to win (Miami also went 0-5 against the Magic).

The 76ers have 41 wins and play the Wizards, Pacers, and Bucks.

The Hawks have 42 wins, have been playing some of the NBA's best basketball and they actually have a tough schedule down the stretch. But they play the Nets, and have been one of the NBA's best teams, they will win 3 of their final games.

So yes, 45 wins at the minimum. Which is possible for the Heat, they have proven what they are capable of, but they have to put it together consistently, for all 48 minutes over the last two weeks.

They also have 3 matchups against tanking opponents including the Pacers and Wizards x2.

Handling business in those games will shift the focus to the games against the teams ahead of them, so it's one game at a time for the Heat, 48 minutes at a time and the Heat must get hot to escape the dreaded play in.