What the Miami Heat need in their final 20 games

With 20 games left in the NBA season, the Miami Heat are squarely in the middle -- they can't catch at least four teams in the Eastern Conference, and they can't be caught by four others.

This is not much of a surprise, since most preseason projections had the Heat about where they are, in a seventh or eighth seed, in line for another Play-in Tournament appearance after going 37-45 last season. Though, it should be said, Las Vegas futures bookmakers set their pace slightly lower than their current 33-29 record, with a line of 37.5 to 38.5 wins.

The Heat should safely pass that victory projection, needing only to go 6-14 to do so.

But there's a chance to do much better.

Here's how the final 20 set up, and the path to a surprising 47-35 season and, with certainty, a playoff series:

1. Take down the Tankers: 5-0

Washington Wizards — Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

It should be noted that the Heat have not exactly taken every opponent seriously, getting blown out by Sacramento at home and Indiana on the road and blowing a lead to Utah even when the Jazz sat their top players for the last third of the game. But they've been better of late, and now there's even less excuse to lose to the intentional losers. Miami has one game left with Brooklyn (Thursday in Miami), three with Washington (which is routinely dressing eight or nine players, few with any experience) and one more with Indiana, which is desperate to have enough defeats to secure a top-four lottery spot so they don't lose their pick to the Clippers. Must sweep. Must, must sweep. That would get the Heat to 38.

2. Make a Mark in the Middle: 4-1

Jonathan Kuminga — Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Are the Heat really better than Play-In worthy, as Bam Adebayo insists? Well, if they are, they need to take more than half the games left against the teams in the Play-in bracket, in either conference, or just below it. So that means getting revenge against Milwaukee (even though Giannis is now back) for a recent loss; handling an Atlanta squad that has been rejuvenated since acquiring Jonathan Kuminga; finally overcoming Orlando after losing all four times to the Magic this season; and getting at least a split with the hot Hornets. The Heat need to get four of those five.

3. Hang with the Playoff Hopefuls: 4-2

Jaime Jaquez, Jr. — Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

There are two teams the Heat need to take out to get as high as a five seed -- or one to simply get the sixth. That's Toronto and Philadelphia. The Heat are 0-2 against the Raptors this season, losing both at home, and 1-1 against the 76ers. They get one more against Toronto and one against Philadelphia, with Joel Embiid's status in doubt for the other. The Heat also have two left with Cleveland, after splitting the first two; and now the Cavaliers have added James Harden. And one with the Los Angeles Lakers, as Luka Doncic and LeBron James make their one visit to Miami. If the Heat can take 3 of 5, they'll be in great shape, especially if at least two of the wins are against the Raptors or 76ers.

4. Steal one against the Elite: 1-3

Victor Wembanyama — Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Let's get one thing out of the way. The Heat likely won't win their last meeting against Boston, after dropping the first three to the Celtics fairly convincingly. But the Heat did just handle Houston; can Miami do it again on the road? Or slow down Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, especially if the Spurs are set in the second seed? Or get a second win of the season against Detroit? One may be sufficient, and that should be doable. Or else, what's the point of even making the playoffs?