The smartest thing the Hornets can do at No. 4? Pass on Ace Bailey

"What is he doing?"

The NBA world asked in unison when Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey canceled his draft interview with the Philadelphia 76ers late Wednesday night.

For the longest time, it's been assumed that Bailey would be landing in Philadelphia, as he has been typically viewed as the third best prospect in the class, and there was a (small, albeit) gap between him and Baylor's VJ Edgecombe, who has been viewed as the fourth best prospect.

After a semi-disappointing freshman year from Bailey, he's only made things worse for himself in the draft process. After being listed at 6'10" at Rutgers, the forward officially measured at 6'7" at the scouting combine. Along with comments about who he is as a player, believing that he is a top-three pick, and not working out for any team pre-draft, it's made for a curious situation regarding where he might land come next Wednesday.

The draft, realistically, starts at three. Duke's Cooper Flagg will go number one and Bailey's college teammate Dylan Harper will go two, so three is really where things become uncertain. Daryl Morey, the 76ers general manager, has selected players in the past who have not worked out for him. So, it would be unwise to rule out the 76ers in still selecting the prospect. That being said, rumors have circulated regarding their interest in VJ Edgecombe, which would mean Bailey would be available at four.

That's where the Charlotte Hornets are selecting.

When I was initially doing my draft research, Bailey was far and away the player I believed fit the Hornets the most. A 6'10" forward who played similar to Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant, could defend all five positions, and was a fantastic shooter from deep. Ace was one of the top high school prospects, a player with the tools to become a legitimate NBA superstar.

So, why have I turned the tides on Bailey, and why should Hornets fans look the other way?

For starters, it's been lightly rumored that the Rutgers' product has little to no interest in the Hornets and wants to be somewhere where he can be the star. If he ends up in a place like Charlotte, he has LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges all fighting for shots. If he ends up somewhere like Washington or Brooklyn? A completely different story. For a player who is trying to make a name for himself and get that highly touted NBA max contract, going to a place where he can be the star is so much better for him.

Second, his game has an extreme amount of underlying weaknesses that could greatly hurt the Hornets. One of the most notable is his finishing game. Ace took 53 of his 440 shots last season at the rim. That's 12%. Not only that, he only shot 56.6% on those shots. The NBA league average is 66.3%.

His iso game is much worse than people believe as well. His handle is unsteady, and the fact that he cannot win against strength has seen him take several shots that even prime Kobe Bryant would question as to why that shot is being taken. He has an underwhelming shot creation, relying on a lot from star Dylan Harper. This may play in the Hornets' favor, though, as LaMelo Ball is one of the best guards in the league at creating shots for his teammates.

Ace Bailey is the ultimate basketball Rorschach test because each of these shots — many of them coming early in the shot clock — are mediocre-to-bad shots.

But this is why Bailey is so fascinating: He made every one of them. pic.twitter.com/dE7Sjr2lBU
— Varun Shankar (@ByVarunShankar) June 17, 2025

For someone who profiles like Durant and Tatum, Bailey took 41 pull-up three attempts. He made 24.4% of them. On his dribble jumpers, he hit only 32.8%. Oh, and his free throw number? 69.2%.

I don't see a path to Ace Bailey being an offensive star

• Lacks quick first step to create advantage
• Badly lacks strength/physicality as a driver (19th%ile rim freq)
• Severely lacking playmaker (0.9/2.2 AST-TOV)
• On-ball, lives off 2-point jumpers but makes <40%

🚩🚩🚩 pic.twitter.com/m19vG65gyC
— Carson Breber (@Carsobi) January 27, 2025

Bailey's defense is better than people give it credit for, though, as he averaged 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals per game last season. He's a great paint defender and could easily slide into the four position that the Hornets have been looking for. Miles Bridges cannot guard the interior, and Bailey can, which would give the Hornets a real four. He struggles on the perimeter, though, which could hurt the Hornets against modern-day fours who stay on the perimeter.

So for the Hornets, it's best to stay clear.

- MORE STORIES FROM HORNETS ON SI -

This free agent could bring the two-way edge the Charlotte Hornets' backcourt lacks

Should the Hornets trade down? Here's what deals with picks 5–10 might look like

Buy or sell: LaMelo Ball trade rumors, Hornets keep Mark Williams, and more

Hornets pre-draft mailbag: Trade-back discussion, best + worst case draft scenarios + more