Analyzing the Kelly Oubre Trade Market

This is the second article in a series of three looking at the trade market for Charlotte’s expiring contracts Mason Plumlee, Kelly Oubre and PJ Washington.

Let’s start this article with me being very honest and upfront, finding an Oubre trade which makes sense for both teams was HARD. It’s difficult to understand his true trade value is, but from the reports I’ve seen despite being a pesky on ball defender and 20pt per game scoring wing he wouldn’t yield Charlotte a 1st round pick. If there were any team that put a 1st on the table, I'm pulling the trigger quicker than John Wick.

Any team trading for Oubre is likely playoff bound, they’re looking for another perimeter defender who is a good cutter, downhill driver and sometimes a good shooter.

Some have concern with Oubre being sidelined he will become an afterthought around the league, personally I think it’s probably the best thing to protect his value. Oubre has been playing with the injury since the start of the year, that could be one of the reasons for his drop in three points percentage this season. At one point it seemed like he was going to try and play through January and February with the injury, that would have likely resulted in a further dip in numbers and efficiency. The surgery should give other teams reassurance he will be fully healthy and ready for the playoffs.

One of the biggest impacts on Oubre’s trade value are the other options available at the same position. There are some frequently reported names who appear to have a "Hotter" trade market such as Bojan Bogdanovic, Gary Trent Jr, Eric Gordon and Jae Crowder. Oubre will likely be Plan B or C for teams who are wanting an upgrade on the wing.

Most contending teams are looking for above average shooters who can easily fit around star players, that’s not how many would describe Oubre. Kelly is a high volume inefficient player who’s defensive impact comes and goes. However, there two teams that stood out as possible partners which I’ve looked at below, they’re not perfect but I could see there being interest on both sides.

Cleveland Cavaliers.

Thanks to @HornetsEnjoyer for suggesting a somewhat similar trade, I had to tweak it to make it a fairer deal for both sides. Cleveland are not going into the playoffs with Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens as their only wing options, they will upgrade at the trade deadline. Equally, Charlotte need to improve their defense, physicality and toughness, something Okoro was known for in the draft and someone they were looking closely at before moving up in the lottery.

I expect Cleveland fans to hate this , home team fans are always the last to give up on former top 10 picks. However, Okoro has been a disappointment for two seasons in a row and has shown limited improvement. Can Cleveland really afford to be patient with him with a potential title contention window open right now? You never know how long your title window is open for.

For Charlotte, you are taking a chance on young a young defensive minded wing who can play both the two and three who excels in transition, that could be a nice fit long term next to LaMelo. Okoro is also a culture guy, he's a hard worker and maybe in a different environment he can take greater strides.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks need additional scoring and defense around Luka who is having an MVP season and thrust Dallas into title contention. I have struggled to nail down the exact details of a Mavs deal, but I do think there's something here. A lot comes down to how they see Oubre vs Bullock, which I personally would.

In this deal Charlotte clears a path for Mark Williams and Kai Jones at center by moving Nick Richards who is an unrestricted free agent this off-season. For Dallas that gives them an upgrade over McGee and Powell. Former UNC star Reggie Bullock's 23-24 salary is only $5 guaranteed so there are option to keep, trade or waive him. I'd hang on and take a look, Bullock has shown to be a very disruptive defender and despite having a down year is a career proven good shooter.

The draft swap compensation gives Dallas two 2nd round picks in 2023, with one likely being top 40. The Mavericks don't currently have any picks in this years draft, so gives them a route to some cheap contracts who could contribute. For Charlotte, they pick up a lottery protected future 1st which would land somewhere in the 20s. This would likely be used in another trade package to upgrade the current roster.

There are various machinations of this trade. It could be Bullock for Oubre straight up, Dallas could add in McGee, Hardaway Jr or Bertans with additional draft assets or you could just trade Richards for Pinson and a pick. Dallas don’t have a pick in the upcoming two drafts, so they could be interested in some shorter term 1st/2nd round picks which Charlotte have plenty of.

Overall, what stuck out to me is there are very few obviously landing places for Oubre. He's an awkward fit on a contender which is probably the reason he ended up in Charlotte in the first place. The other challenge is there’s not a single trade exception currently within the NBA that Oubre’s $12 million dollar contract fits into, so opposing teams need to give up something of value.

After conducting this exercise it makes me think it’s more likely Oubre will finish the season in Charlotte. He is a popular player in the Hornets locker room and is clearly someone the young players look up. Depending on what happens with Hayward, Bridges and McDaniels they might even explore re-signing him in the off-season.

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