The Rookie of the Year Race Between Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg Shouldn't Be Close

Placing winning on the shoulders of one player, even on a five-man unit in the NBA, is not exactly fair. It's a criticism that was levied against Charlotte Hornets star LaMelo Ball, and it wasn't fair. Winning is a team stat.

However, win shares is the best advanced metric to get at the heart of this "winning player" argument. It's meant to illustrate how much a player really does impact winning, even if the team is bad. It's a better way of looking at it than just wins.

In the wins sense, though, Kon Knueppel would easily be the Rookie of the Year. He arrived and transformed a dead-end team, turning them into a legitimate playoff contender in the East. Cooper Flagg's Dallas Mavericks are bad.

Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel (7) stands with Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

But we all know that's not a fair argument. Flagg doesn't have the team Knueppel does. Breaking it down into win shares is a much more fair way of assessing this "winning player" argument that ridiculously permeates basketball discourse.

And if we do look at win shares, the Rookie of the Year race won't be remotely close. Knueppel leads by a fair margin. He's been the rookie who impacts winning the most, with 6.9 win shares. In fact, he leads the Hornets with that mark.

Most Win-Shares Among NBA Rookies:

6.9 — Kon Knueppel (CHA)
4.6 — Ryan Kalkbrenner (CHA)
3.1 — VJ Edgecombe (PHI)
3.0 — Collin Murray-Boyles (TOR)
2.8 — Cooper Flagg (DAL) pic.twitter.com/iLlYEeGA1i
— Kalshi Hoops (@KalshiHoops) March 12, 2026

Cooper Flagg is at 2.8, so despite his all-around brilliance on both ends as a very young rookie, he hasn't impacted winning like many expected. Knueppel has. Ryan Kalkbrenner, somewhat astonishingly, has, too. He's second in the NBA in rookie win shares.

That's just another feather in the cap of Knueppel's argument. Flagg's averages are higher virtually across the board, but he also has a higher usage rate. Knueppel is a way better shooter, much more efficient scorer, and has a better net rating.

Flagg's 109.1 offensive rating pales in comparison to Knueppel's 117.9. Flagg's defensive rating is 114.1, and Knueppel's is even better at 112.8. On both ends of the floor, Knueppel has seemingly been better, despite what the traditional slash line says.

Knueppel has played more games, though that should only matter at a certain point. LaMelo Ball won Rookie of the Year over Anthony Edwards despite playing just 51 games.

Knueppel is -170 to win the award, per FanDuel. Flagg is +135. That suggests that if the season ended today, it would be Knueppel's award, but based on the mountain of evidence, plus the historic nature of Knueppel's shooting season, the odds should be better.

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