NBA Championship Power Rankings: Jayson Tatum Returns While Another Team Gets Eliminated

At the start of each NBA season there are, realistically, about 10 teams who could make a run at a championship. By the time the All-Star break hits, those teams have made themselves known. The contenders have risen above the pretenders. The statistical profiles have enough of a sample size to be considered reliable. There’s always the chance of a team’s season getting derailed by an unpredictable twist of events. But by and large the shortlist of squads who will have a legitimate chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June is obvious at this stage.

Last week Sports Illustrated built off the first iteration of championship power rankings by heightening the stakes: one team will get eliminated from the rankings every week as the season winds down. The first team to go was the 76ers. This week there will be a new team on the chopping block, bringing the total number of championship hopefuls down to 10 in these rankings.

The big development since last week’s rankings, of course, is the return of Jayson Tatum. The Celtics superstar looked rusty at points once he got back on an NBA floor for the first team in 10 months but his addition figures to be a boon for Boston—one that has the potential to rocket them up the championship standings as he gets his legs under him.

Here’s how SI’s championship power rankings stack up in the second week of March.

Eliminated teams

76ers

Why they’re eliminated: Tyrese Maxey was a whirlwind post All-Star break. But the 76ers looked comically outmatched against any real contenders. Then the star guard hurt his finger and was ruled out for three weeks, effectively spelling the end of Philly’s contention hopes. The Sixers were a longshot to make a title run for most of the year but any belief this team could compete with the best, even at full health, is officially gone.

Raptors

Why they’re eliminated: The Raptors could definitely prove to be a tough playoff out against the right first-round opponent, but a deep playoff run culminating in a title? A touch too optimistic for our liking. Toronto had a solid chance to prove otherwise this past week with matchups against several contenders on this list but lost handily in every contest; the team scored 16 points in the fourth quarter of a winnable game against the Rockets on Tuesday night. This is simply a mediocre team even with a consistently strong defense and mediocre teams never come anywhere close to winning a title.

NBA championship power rankings

10. Lakers

Last week’s ranking: 10
Record entering March 11: 40–25

The title case: Starpower. Most opponents cannot handle the full might of Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. The trio boast ludicrous shot-making and creation skills against any opponent. But it remains difficult to envision this Lakers team making any real noise in the playoffs. They are bad defensively, offering little resistance on the perimeter and in the paint. Consequently, when Los Angeles isn’t shooting well, there’s no recourse. No other strength the roster can turn to to win games. An electric scoring stretch from any of their trio of superstars could win a postseason game or two but the Lakers will be hard-pressed to earn a series win, much less make a deep run.

Why they’re still alive: The Lakers’ solid win over the Wolves has given them some breathing room but they remain on the edge of elimination. The weekend’s win over the Knicks is impressive on paper but was only made possible by New York making fewer than 30% of the 19 wide-open three-point shots the L.A. defense gave up. The team seems to run a bit smoother with just Dončić and Reaves but it doesn’t change the reality that the Lakers continue to profile as a team good enough to beat up on less-talented squads. But they also have enough weaknesses to fall to most competent opponents. And they’re running out of time to prove otherwise.

9. Rockets

Last week’s ranking: 7
Record entering Mar. 11: 40–24

The title case: The book has been out on the Rockets all year long and not much has really changed: Kevin Durant will score the ball, Alperen Şengün will help, and everyone else hits the boards while playing Ime Udoka’s signature brand of in-your-face defense. But Houston’s midseason struggles scoring the ball, especially late in the game, reflect the very real concern that there is no offensive plan against set defenses beyond hoping Durant can make something happen. The Rockets are talented but look to have a fatal flaw in that regard.

Why they’re still alive: The Rockets boast a fairly high floor with how the roster is put together; as long as KD is doing KD things, they have a puncher’s chance. Tuesday’s win over the Raptors was a neat encapsulation of how well Houston can handle lesser squads. But two recent losses were uninspiring enough to drop them a few spots in these rankings. On Thursday Houston failed to put away a shorthanded Warriors team and ended up losing in overtime. Then, on Sunday, the team was blown out of the water by the Spurs and gave up 145 points in regulation. Two different games against two teams on very different ends of the competition spectrum, but the result was the same: a concerning defeat.

8. Timberwolves

Last week’s ranking: 7
Record entering Mar. 11: 40–25

The title case: This Timberwolves roster is just as talented as last season with a better version of Anthony Edwards leading the way. Minnesota made a Western Conference finals run last season and haven’t suffered any notable losses to the roster, so it should be ready to make another this season. On some nights that seems all but certain, especially given how Edwards has played after the All-Star break; the 24-year-old star is scoring north of 30 points per game since playing in his fourth All-Star exhibition.

Why they’re still alive: When things are clicking the T-Wolves are a great team and the roster clearly enjoys getting up to play against the best competition in both conferences. But Minnesota can bottom out to a worrying degree. The team’s pantsing at the hands of the Magic on Saturday is a good embodiment of all that; the T-Wolves managed 14 fourth-quarter points and got blown out by 26 points by the final whistle. Tuesday night’s letdown in Los Angeles wasn’t great, either. Bad games happen but these types of performances have occurred too often to feel entirely comfortable with Minnesota as a top-flight contender this season.

7. Cavaliers

Last week’s ranking: 9
Record entering March 4: 40–25

The title case: The Cavaliers have the talent to compete for a title, that’s for sure. The trade deadline brought James Harden to Cleveland, where he now suits up alongside Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Between those three, the Cavs should check every box for championship contention. Harden’s acclimation has gone pretty well so far, which is encouraging, and Mitchell’s return from injury came with enough ramp-up time that he should be at full go when the playoffs arrive.

Why they’re still alive: With Harden and Mitchell back in the fold the Cavaliers are in good shape. A horrendous shooting day left them disappointed against the Celtics over the weekend but beating the Pistons without Mitchell and despite Harden shooting 5-for-17 from the field is definitely a feather in the cap. What this team looks like fully locked and loaded is still very much coming together but the early returns on both sides of the floor are trending positive.

6. Nuggets

Last week’s ranking: 5
Record entering Mar. 11: 39–26

The title case: The Nuggets are enjoying another vintage Nikola Jokić season. As long as he’s healthy Denver has a shot. Jamal Murray enjoying his first All-Star campaign could lead to an even better postseason for an already-proven playoff performer. They just barely lost to the Thunder last year and have gotten better this season. The kicker for these Nuggets, more than any other team, is health. Murray suffered an ankle injury over the weekend, Aaron Gordon only just returned from a long hamstring-related absence and key defensive piece Peyton Watson has been sidelined since early February with his own injury. Denver needs everyone healthy to compete with the best of the best.

Why they’re still alive: With Jokić and Murray on the floor the Nuggets remain contenders. Denver’s offense has been and continues to be remarkably prolific despite the injuries hamstringing (no pun intended) the roster constantly this year. But their most recent stretch highlighted the big defensive issues that need addressing before the playoffs. Denver gave up 142 points to the Knicks and 129 points to the Thunder in consecutive games. In five games played this month the Nuggets own the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA. The offense can reach great enough heights that it overcomes those problems more often than not but that side of the ball needs work if the team is to survive very long in the West.

5. Knicks

Last week’s ranking: 4
Record entering Mar. 11: 41–25

The title case: The Knicks boast a very talented starting five that is quite difficult to stop offensively. Jalen Brunson is a proven No. 1 playoff option and the OG Anunoby-Mikal Bridges combo is a terror on the wing. New York is skilled on both ends and shouldn’t be quite as worn down entering the playoffs with Mike Brown in charge instead of Tom Thibodeau. However, it is still undeniable that Brunson and Towns are a brutal playoff pairing defensively and the Knicks in general have been disturbingly inconsistent for a legit contender. Given the highs and lows New York has shown this year there’s no team with a greater range of outcomes.

Why they’re still alive: The Knicks’ amazing ups will keep them on this list, even if the shocking downs will stop them from topping these rankings. New York lost a close game to the reigning champion Thunder (with a 40-point third quarter helping launch a huge comeback) before obliterating the Nuggets on the road. Then, the letdowns; the orange and blue lost two straight against the Lakers and Clippers, respectively. Far be it from us to punish a team for losing a back-to-back set in Los Angeles but both were winnable contests and the sort of victories New York can’t let slip away down the stretch.

4. Celtics

Last week’s ranking: 6
Record entering Mar. 11: 43–22

The title case: The Celtics were an exceptionally well-coached team led by a true star in Jaylen Brown. Now they are all that plus Jayson Tatum. Boston has maintained its place as an elite offensive team while working extremely hard as a group to put forth strong defensive efforts every night despite boasting an unrecognizable roster from last year. Tatum’s return has gone very smoothly as well. The superstar forward already looks like a capable defender and rebounder who can hit open shots. There is a real chance, perhaps even a probability, he gets better as the playoffs near, which would allow the team to reach another level offensively while maintaining its defensive excellence. Right now the sky feels like the limit in Boston, and rightfully so; it’s hard to keep expectations in check with how Tatum looks and how good this team was without him.

Why they’re still alive: The C’s were surging before Tatum came back and haven’t really missed a beat. They easily handled the Mavericks in his first night back before withstanding a late surge by the Cavaliers to win in Cleveland. Tuesday night’s loss to the Spurs was impressive given Brown’s ejection in the first half. Boston is making a great case to be on the shortlist of genuine threats to OKC’s crown, but Tatum’s recovery and its ripple effects on the rotation have to unfold a bit more before anything definitive can be said about these Celtics.

3. Pistons

Last week’s ranking: 2
Record entering Mar. 11: 46–18

The title case: The Pistons are an excellent, physical defensive squad with an MVP candidate leading the way offensively in Cade Cunningham. Jalen Duren’s All-Star leap has given the team a true centerpiece to man the middle on both ends. J.B. Bickerstaff has inspired a physical defense that overcomes a lack of offensive output from the players who surround Cunningham most nights.

Why they’re still alive: The Pistons have been good enough all year long to give them some benefit of the doubt when looking at their slump over the last few games; Detroit lost four straight entering Tuesday night’s contest against the Nets. Some of that can be chalked up to Cunningham battling a quad injury and the roster missing its best wing defender in Ausar Thompson for a stretch. But it marks a slide the likes of which we have not seen from this Pistons team. As of now it remains a midseason bump in the road for a team that has been much better than its opponents all year long, one they hope they broke out of with a Tuesday night beatdown of the Nets in Brooklyn.

2. Spurs

Last week’s ranking: 2
Record entering Mar. 11: 48–17

The title case: Victor Wembanyama. That’s the start and end of the Spurs’ case to win a title way ahead of schedule this year. The third-year All-Star has been a force unto himself since coming into the league but figured out how to best apply his outrageous skillset to winning games this season. San Antonio’s supporting cast has proven ready to rise to the moment alongside him. This is a very good team with a hard-to-see ceiling due to the generational superstar manning the middle.

Why they’re still alive: The Spurs were one of three teams to hit the 40 wins before 20 losses mark, widely seen as a must-have milestone for any future NBA title holder, so they have earned recognition as one of the top title contenders remaining. What’s more, they have lost one game since January. San Antonio is proving capable of winning in a variety of ways and Wembanyama isn’t showing any signs of fatigue ahead of the final sprint to the finish line; he set a new career high in three-point makes en route to 39 points on primetime television Tuesday.

1. Thunder

Last week’s rankings: 1
Record entering Mar. 11: 51–15

The title case: The Thunder have fallen off the historic pace they set to kick off the year but were still the first team to hit 50 wins on the year and thus the defending champs remain favorites to take home another title. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned in resounding fashion from his injury and looks yet again like the most talented scorer in the world. OKC’s depth has proved up to the task at every turn throughout the extended absence of Jalen Williams and other key pieces. There’s little reason to doubt the Thunder’s ability to make another deep playoff run.

Why they’re still alive: The Thunder won’t be falling off these rankings at any point. In the fine-tuning realm, Williams is running out of time to get back on the court and up to full speed ahead of the playoffs. Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein are working through injuries of their own. The OKC juggernaut will steamroll opponents without them but the playoffs are a tough time to reintroduce key pieces into the rotation; the franchise undoubtedly wants all three back in action before the postseason gauntlet.

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