What Does a Scaled-Up Coby White Look Like in Charlotte?

Days after the monumental trade of the face of the franchise, LaMelo Ball, and the reported re-signing of Coby White, the Charlotte Hornets appear to have their new starting lead guard heading into next season.

After digging into White's numbers and what a scaled-up version of the 26-year-old could look like leading Charlotte's offense, it becomes much easier to understand why the Hornets' front office is so confident in him heading into next season.

Where Coby White wins

Acquired at last season's trade deadline, White quickly became one of Charlotte's most valuable players. In 21 games with the Hornets, he averaged 15.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists while playing roughly 19 minutes per game.

White also helped solve one of Charlotte's biggest problems throughout much of last season. The offense often fell apart whenever Ball went to the bench. In White's minutes without Ball on the floor, the Hornets were +94 in plus-minus. For comparison, Charlotte was -72 in Collin Sexton's minutes without Ball before Sexton was traded in the deal for White.

In addition, according to dunksandthrees.com, White ranked in the 96th percentile in estimated offensive impact per 100 possessions and in the 94th percentile in databallr's Offensive Impact Estimate.

Overall, White put together a really impressive offensive analytical profile in his seventh NBA season. While it did not quite reach the offensive impact Ball produced, there are certainly plenty of encouraging numbers suggesting White has the value to help Charlotte recreate the top-five offense it fielded last season.

Push the numbers aside for a moment, and White's offensive skill set also appears to be a clean fit alongside the rest of Charlotte's projected new starting five: Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Naz Reid, and Moussa Diabaté. It is still late June, and that group could certainly change before opening night, but the fit on paper is certainly intriguing.

White's aggressive downhill driving and ability to bend a defense should pair well with the perimeter shooting of Miller, Knueppel, and Reid. White is a marksman in his own right as well, shooting 39% from three-point range with Charlotte last season and 43% on non-corner three-pointers.

That gives the Hornets legitimate three-point threats from the one through the four, while Diabaté does the dirty work by relentlessly crashing the offensive glass and finding relocating shooters. It is a lineup that, if it develops as expected, has the potential to be extremely difficult to defend.

White also brings another important dimension to Charlotte's projected starting lineup. He draws fouls at a high rate, an area where Miller and Knueppel, in particular, can still improve.

According to Cleaning the Glass, White ranked in the 90th percentile among guards in shooting fouled percentage and the 91st percentile in floor fouled percentage last season. He plays effectively through contact, consistently forces officials to make a call, and gives Charlotte another reliable way to generate offense.

Reality check

On the defensive end, though, things become a bit more problematic. White has the size and frame to avoid being a liability, but his defensive analytical profile is not particularly strong.

White is what I would classify as a non-defensive playmaker. He posts a very low steal rate for a guard, a low block rate, and a 4% foul rate, which is on the higher side. He simply does not generate many impact plays on the defensive end, and while that is not expected to be his primary role, understanding what he is defensively is important when evaluating Charlotte's projected starting five.

Looking at Charlotte's projected one through three of White, Knueppel, and Miller, I do not think that is an effective defensive trio. At this point, none of the three are consistent plus defenders on a nightly basis.

Miller has shown stretches of being that, especially in certain matchups, but with Charlotte's personnel, he will likely draw the opponent's best perimeter scorer. That has been a difficult assignment for him at times, most notably against smaller star guards and bigger, more physical wings.

As things currently stand, I am not especially high on this lineup defensively. If this group reaches its ceiling, it will likely do so by outscoring opponents. But ultimately, I think the defensive swap from Ball to White is mostly a wash. White is more consistently in the right position defensively, while Ball was better at creating defensive events with his daring style of play.

White certainly has the numbers and offensive bag to suggest he can lead Charlotte's offense. It is important to note, though, that he has always been more of a score-first combo guard than a traditional playmaking guard like Ball.

Because of that, much more of the playmaking burden will fall on Knueppel and Miller. It is also pretty safe to assume both players will see fewer high-quality scoring opportunities without Ball's creativity and visionary playmaking creating those looks for them.

So you might be someone like me who still would not have made the Ball trade and believes it ultimately makes Charlotte a worse team. That may very well prove to be true.

But I at least see the vision behind why the front office believes White can keep the Hornets' offense operating at a top-10 level, be solid defensively, and be more of a sure thing to stay available over the course of a season.

Whether he ultimately proves them right remains to be seen, but it is clear that a bet on White is far from a blind one by Charlotte's braintrust.

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