To Tank or Push: Jazz Lottery & Playoff Scenarios

It might be time for Utah Jazz fans to jump on the Team Tank train.
To Tank or Push: Jazz Lottery & Playoff Scenarios
To Tank or Push: Jazz Lottery & Playoff Scenarios /
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Utah Jazz fans will have closure on the lottery odds front soon enough. But with only three remaining games left in the regular season, it’s not a finality that Utah will be in possession of a top-10 pick in a loaded 2023 NBA draft.

What should Team Tank be rooting for in the final week? How about the fans that are holding out for the playoffs? 

Let’s examine.

Mathematically the Jazz could still be tied for the fifth-worst record in the league, but realistically it’s just not in the cards. The Jazz would have to lose their remaining three games, while the Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, and Portland Trail Blazers would need to win out. 

Also, the Orlando Magic would need to win two or three of their last three games. In the event of a tie, the league has a random drawing to determine which team gets the better odds. For all intents and purposes, the tank crowd can put thoughts of spiraling below No. 8 to bed.

What’s the most likely scenario? Utah currently holds the No. 9 spot with a real possibility of staying there. However, there are three teams that are only one game behind Utah in the loss column (Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks). 

If Utah wins two or three of its final games, it’s plausible to drop to the No. 12 spot while, at the same time, not making the play-in tournament. That would be a disaster. The game Thursday against the Thunder is vital for the Jazz to lose if they want to keep a firm grip on the No. 9 spot. 

Another team to be keeping an eye on are the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and could be resting starters when they visit Salt Lake City on Saturday. What looked to be penciled in as a loss may now end up being a coin flip. 

There are a lot of moving parts on where the Jazz could land in the lottery, but the scenarios for advancing to the playoffs are pretty straightforward.

The Jazz just need to lose one of their final three games, and they would be eliminated from the play-in tournament. If Utah wins the latter last three, then a Thunder win against the Memphis Grizzlies in their season finale, or a Mavericks win against the Bulls or Houston Rockets would end Utah’s season.

There’s no more room for error for a playoff run, and it might be time for Jazz Nation to get on the same page and hope for Utah to drop its final three contests.


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Patrick Byrnes
PATRICK BYRNES

Patrick Byrnes is the Deputy Editor of The Frozen Rope — SI.com's team website covering the Utah Jazz.