Projecting Kings' Floor and Ceiling for the 2026-27 NBA Season

Despite still having at least one more roster spot they need to fill, the Sacramento Kings' 2026 offseason feels practically wrapped up, with a clear picture of what their rotation will look like next season. A core built around Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Keegan Murray, and Darius Acuff Jr. certainly raises some questions, but how will this new-look Kings team translate to the court?

After finishing the 2025-26 season with a 22-60 record, their second-worst mark in the Sacramento era (1985-present), the Kings' expectations are as low as ever. Here is how I think things could play out for them, though, in both best and worst-case scenarios:

Floor: 18-64

Mar 15, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) drives to the basket past Vanderbilt Commodores forward Devin McGlockton (99) during the first half during the men's SEC Conference Tournament Championship at Bridgestone Arena. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While we should expect the Kings to actually improve from their 22-win mark last season, it is certainly possible that the team regresses. In an 18-win season, the Kings' priority would be to give their young core as many opportunities as possible, with Darius Acuff Jr. taking complete control of the offense and guys like Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud given chances to make a sophomore leap.

The only real way the Kings win just 18 games is if they ditch veterans Sabonis and LaVine midway through the season, or if they have another injury-ridden campaign, as we saw in 2025-26.

In each of the past three seasons, there have been at least two teams to win fewer than 20 games. With much of the rest of the league steadily improving, it would not be shocking if the Kings are one of those teams next season. With the NBA's new lottery format, there is no benefit from the Kings finishing as a bottom-three team in the league, so this would truly be the worst-case scenario.

Fortunately, we have higher hopes for the Kings next season.

Ceiling: 37-45

Jan 16, 2026; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis (11) reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Washington Wizards at Golden 1 Center. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sure, it seems like a big gap to go from what would likely be the NBA's worst record to a potential play-in contender, but it is hard to pinpoint exactly where the Kings will end up next season.

If their veterans in Sabonis and LaVine piece things together, while their young core continues to improve, the Kings could actually make some noise. Especially if role players like De'Andre Hunter, Malik Monk, and Precious Achiuwa can find different ways to make an impact, the Kings could be much better next season than people expect.

Granted, a 37-win season would still not be a huge success, but it would show the Kings are blasting past their expectations. A more successful season for the Kings would simply be the young guys showing promise to give the franchise a brighter future, but stringing together some wins in the process would also help the overall culture in Sacramento.

Even by winning 37 games and missing out on the play-in tournament, this would be a big win for Sacramento. With the NBA's new lottery format, the sweet spot is missing the play-in but finishing better than the bottom three teams. Just by the Kings somewhat exceeding expectations, this is likely where they will end up.

Most realistic: 26-56

Feb 1, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Zach LaVine (8) looks on during the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While it would be great to see the Kings get close to a spot in the play-in tournament, they will likely fall well short. Despite having even lower expectations than last season, we should see a slight improvement.

A 26-win season would obviously not be viewed as a success for the Kings, but it feels very likely that this is around where they will land.

This would still put them toward the bottom of the West, but again, as long as they show some competitive spirit and their young guys show flashes, it is hard to be too upset about where they end up next season. The Kings have made it very clear that they are rebuilding, so expecting too much from them will ultimately end in heartbreak.

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