To Extend or Not to Extend: Zach LaVine Extension Preview

With the lottery order set and their first round pick heading to Atlanta, the Sacramento Kings can focus on their second round pick (42nd overall). In addition to draft season being in full swing, Scott Perry and B.J. Armstrong must prepare for important negotiations in the coming months.

Their first priority should be extending Keegan Murray. After those talks, which may begin on July 1, Sacramento may also extend Zach LaVine beginning July 7. An overview of these negotiations below:

Since LaVine was acquired via trade, he cannot receive his true max extension until August 3rd, 6 months after the trade.

From July 7 through August 2, LaVine is eligible for an extension starting at 120% of his prior salary (~$57M, 33% of the 2026-27 cap). Starting August 3, LaVine may extend for up to $59.5M (35% of the 2026-27 salary cap). (Both figures assume he declines his player option)

To be brief, LaVine will not receive either of the above figures. Recent veteran max extensions include LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, and Kawhi Leonard. LaVine is a valuable player, but is clearly below those names.

There is plenty of borderline All-Star precedent to guide LaVine’s negotiations. Most recently, Brandon Ingram inked a 3 year, $120M extension after getting traded to Toronto. Dejounte Murray’s 4 year, $114M extension with Atlanta comes to mind as well.

Those two, with other recent examples and their platform season statistics, below:

Statistical comparison for Zach LaVine | NBA.com/stats

LaVine is an elite shooter, and has been for some time (39% 3PT shooter on nearly 4,000 career attempts). However, he lags behind in his playmaking and defensive ability.

This was highlighted in his post-deadline stint in Sacramento. LaVine posted his lowest assist numbers since 2017-18, his first season in Chicago, and his assist/turnover ratio was notably lower than his recent seasons with the Bulls, too.

His assist numbers in Chicago increased after his first season, so there is hope that LaVine simply takes some time to get comfortable before popping as a playmaker. We may also see a new offensive scheme better cater to LaVine’s strengths, or roster changes with a similar impact.

Zach LaVine Multi-Year LEBRON | BBall Index

Context surrounding veteran extensions is important, and teams are probably wary of this given the players highlighted here. For example, Andrew Wiggins was extended after his lone All-Star appearance and helping lead the Warriors to a championship.

Julius Randle was similarly extended after winning Most Improved Player, appearing in his first All-Star game, and leading the Knicks to their best season in years.

Atlanta extended Dejounte Murray one season removed from first All-Star appearance. Additionally, like the Kings parting with a franchise cornerstone to acquire LaVine, the Hawks made their own “all-in” trade to acquire Murray. The optics of trading a lot for Murray, just to not lock him in long term, would not have been well-received.

Recent Contract Extensions | Spotrac / James McCauley

A noteworthy trend - Murray, Wiggins, Randle, and Rozier have all been traded since signing their extensions. C.J. McCollum has not been traded, but is frequently mentioned in rumors.

The extending teams all (to varying degrees) tried to get off of these contracts before the extensions began. Most quickly became negative values and were hard to move. Flexibility is key in the apron era, and is absolutely something Perry and Armstrong should consider when negotiating.

McCollum is the closest recent comparison. He sports a similar score-first 2 guard profile, was extended after being traded, and is the closest in age. Like McCollum, LaVine will be over 30 when his extension would begin.

McCollum’s extension is the shortest of the group, and fewer years may actually appeal to both sides for different reasons - Sacramento considering LaVine’s injury history, LaVine’s camp considering committing to a franchise defined by turnover and run by a regime that did not trade for him.

Importantly, McCollum’s extension does not include a player option, which has been common practice with veteran extensions and could come up as a bargaining chip to raise or lower salary.

If the Kings do extend Keegan Murray as well, Sacramento’s roster gets expensive quickly. Extending LaVine on a descending contract would at least help soften that blow.

CAP SHEET WITH LaVINE ON McCOLLUM EXTENSION & MURRAY EXTENSION | Spotrac / James McCauley

Extending Keon Ellis when he becomes eligible as well really complicates the financials.

CAP SHEET WITH LaVINE ON McCOLLUM EXTENSION, MURRAY EXTENSION & ELLIS MAX EXTENSION | Spotrac / James McCauley

An optimist could see lining LaVine up with Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk (if he picks his PO up), and locking Ellis and Murray in as providing Sabonis with the clarity he hopes to gain this summer. Sacramento could then work to move DeMar DeRozan’s salary to add a true point guard and/or low-usage supplemental pieces.

However, extending LaVine in this sequence of events would put Sacramento right at the first apron in 2026-27 - uncharted territory for a franchise that has not paid the luxury tax since 2003.

Despite ample comparisons to guide discussions, this will not be a simple negotiation. Kings fans have certainly learned that Klutch Sports knows how to use leverage and is not afraid to apply pressure.

As noted with Dejounte Murray (also a Klutch client), the optics of letting the main return from a franchise-altering trade reach unrestricted free agency will certainly come up. Retaining talent via trades/extensions – as Sacramento did with Domantas Sabonis – is likely the safest path towards sustained relevance, which appears to be the goal as Sacramento retools (as opposed to rebuilds) their roster.

Of course, this preview comes with the massive caveat that Scott Perry and B.J. Armstrong believe their retooling includes LaVine. Given Perry’s past comments, that is not necessarily a given. There are very real scenarios where these talks go nowhere, and the team wants to wait and see LaVine perform in Doug Christie’s system before committing more money.

This offseason could go many different directions. Regardless of how these conversations go, expect this topic to factor into other decisions as Perry and Armstrong retool this roster over the summer.

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