Magic might deeply regret missing the 2026 NBA Draft

Orlando does not own its first-round pick after dealing for Desmond Bane

Dec 20, 2025; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) tries to drive past Houston Cougars guard Kingston Flemings (4) during the first half at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images | John Jones-Imagn Images

If you follow college football, you're likely aware that Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti orchestrated one of the greatest two-year turnarounds in the sport's history. One quote from Cignetti's beginning in Bloomington, Ind., hasn't quite left my mind since I've heard it.

"I'm into production over potential. I learned that a long time ago," the national championship head coach said.

Curt Cignetti knows how to build a program from the ground up. 

He told me what he looks for recruits/ transfer portal players ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/haJ4f2pSRQ

— Adam Breneman (@AdamBreneman81) November 5, 2024

Football is obviously a far different sport from basketball. But some of Cignetti's recruiting philosophy could translate into how a team drafts or adds talent in an NBA context.

Last summer, the Magic traded four first-round picks -- including their 2026 pick, a pick tied to Phoenix and Washington (ORL would've had second-best pick of those three teams) -- for Desmond Bane. The veteran guard fit an exact skill Orlando was starved for, and the ticket it paid was a premium cost.

Bane's production hasn't been bad either, which is one reason why I still think it's too early to claim it's a loss for Orlando. But at 28-25, one saving grace for the Magic's struggles would be that they would have an opportunity to inject more youth -- and another cost-controlled contract amid the lofty Banchero/Wagner/Suggs deals -- in the first round from a loaded draft class.

Except they no longer have that fortune. And with how the '26 class has developed, there could be some regret.

Why Magic might regret not having a first-round pick in 2026 NBA Draft:

Feb 10, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) directs the offense during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

It's way too early to make any firm conclusions, but we could be looking at a historically great freshman class.

Outside of the Peterson-Boozer-Dybantsa trio, among the top performances are a 42-point outing from Houston's Kingston Flemings, a 45-point, nine-rebound performance from Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr., a 46-point performance from Illinois' Keaton Wagler and, most recently, a 49-point performance from Arkansas' Darius Acuff in two overtimes.

One game is just one game, but there's no denying the potential this class possesses, on the surface. Each of those four guards has the chance to be a primary offensive engine; Arizona's Brayden Burries, Baylor's Tounde Yessoufou, UConn's Braylon Mullins and Tennessee's Nate Ament all have serious appeal for different reasons.

Even more seasoned options -- such as Baylor's Cam Carr, Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg and Alabama's Labaron Philon -- are all intriguing prospects, too.

While the Magic's brass has done a good job stacking talent (Banchero, Wagner, Suggs and Black) over the last half-decade, their books are about to get really clogged with limited avenues to add. They will have a chance to add another cost-controlled contract in the second round. But the hit rate on those players is nowhere near as efficient as it would be relative to having, say, a top-15 pick.

Watching Orlando's stagnation is like pulling teeth; Bane is good, but knowing it's not incentivized to lose without a chance at acquiring any of these premier talents compounds the pain. Alas, we'll see if the Magic's "production over potential" philosophy, in this isolated instance, pays off, or if it will signal some future regret.