The Magic Insider

Getting Brunson off his game the key as birthday Banchero jumps into New York

Banchero's 23rd birthday falls on a national tv game in The Garden. Will Paolo go off tonight?
Ryan Kaminski|
Mike Watters-Imagn Images

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Orlando MagicNew York Knicks

The Magic are coming off the first most exciting moment of the Desmond Bane Era after his game-winning buzzer-beater walk-off three against the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday night.

Orlando now rides this momentum into New York tonight for a national tv game against the Knicks.

What are the keys to a #MagicWin in The Garden?

1. Jordan Year Jumpman Invasion of New York

Paolo holds Jordan shoe
Paolo holds Jordan shoe | MANDATORY CREDIT: NIKE


Paolo Banchero turns 23 years old today, the day his Magic team plays basketball on national television in New York City.

The Jordan Brand Jumpman enters his Jordan year with a game in The Garden.

Banchero is the youngest player in NBA History to lead his team in scoring, rebounds, and assists in a single season.

The only other four players to do this before the age of 23?

Michael Jordan
Kevin Garnett
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Maurice Stokes

Banchero dominated the Blazers other than a few late-game miscues, posting a box score of 28 PTS - 9 REB - 3 AST / 2 TO - 1 STL on 62.5% TS%.

Magic-Knicks, at the Garden, on ESPN... the night of Banchero's birthday.

Paolo went out of his way to say how excited he is for this moment.

"Paolo Banchero wants a win for his birthday",writes Marc Spears for Andscape, where Banchero reveals he isn't overreacting to the early team struggles.

2. Drawing fouls, crashing glass, forcing turnovers, hitting open shots all factors in slowing down rolling Knicks

Brunson celebrates
Dec 15, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) celebrates a three pointer against the Orlando Magic in the fourth quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images | Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images

At 7-3 to start the season, the Knicks are rolling:

The East's 2-seed is beating teams by the 4th-highest point differential (+9.8) with the #1 offense and #8 defense.

That PD jumps up to +17 PPG in their last six games. (5-1)

What can Orlando do to slow New York down?

The Knicks offense is great at crashing the offensive glass (4th), and above average at not turning the ball over (10th) and shooting efficiency (13th), while they struggle with drawing fouls. (26th)

New York's defense struggles with stopping opponents from scoring efficiently (27th), but thrives in the Top-10 in 3 defensive Four Factors: defensive rebounding (1st), forcing turnovers (8th), and not fouling. (7th)

One of the biggest swing factors will be who wins the battle on the glass – with Mitchell Robinson day-to-day with an injury, the Knicks best offensive rebounder may not be available, or at least not 100%.

Another big factor will be how many free throws Orlando generates, as the Magic rank #1 in FT Rate, while the Knicks are smart about not fouling.

Opponents are shooting better against the Knicks this season than 26 other teams; will that lead to Orlando taking and making better looks?

Can the Magic's defense continue to reshape itself and force the Knicks into uncharacteristic turnovers for extra possessions and easy points?

3. Who do you gameplan around in this Knicks offense?

Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns run Pick-and-Roll against Trae Young
Dec 11, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) sets a pick for forward Mikal Bridges (25) against Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) during the first quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

This Knicks offense is looking deep, talented, and balanced under new head coach, Mike Brown.

Mikal Bridges is back to his elite two-way big wing tough shot making ways, making scoring look effortless at 68% TS% with half his shots coming from 3pt range at a whopping 47% 3P%, plus high-level defensive tenacity.

Paired with OG Anunoby, another superb defender scoring efficiently (60% TS%), these two big wing stoppers will be a tough matchup for Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero on both sides of the floor. Who edges out each other in these matchups could be a deciding factor in the game.

Karl-Anthony Towns is still a knock down 3pt shooting pick-and-pop threat who can put the ball on the floor and drive to the rack, or break out some old school herky jerky moves for a middy. Paired with Brunson in P&R, this action bends the defense and leverages maximum advantages for the team.

Containing the Brunson-Towns two-man game is key, the two leading scorers for the Knicks at 28 PPG and 21 PPG, respectively.

With Jalen Suggs back, Bane and Anthony Black ready to go, Orlando has strong defensive personnel to throw at Brunson, mix up looks, keep legs fresh, and force him to give up the rock without leaving others open.

Orlando should aim to stop Brunson's shot creation first, then to contest the shooting and tough shotmaking of Towns and Bridges second, mostly by using heavy ball pressure without sending a double and securing the defensive rebound to finish the possession.


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Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK

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