The Magic Insider

Scoring Off Turnovers among 3 Keys to victory as Orlando hosts the Hawks

What are The Magic's 3 keys to victory in Game 2 against Atlanta?
Jan 7, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) drives to the basket as Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) defends during the first quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Jan 7, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) drives to the basket as Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) defends during the first quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

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The Atlanta Hawks made major moves this summer to upgrade the team's roster, further flanking an uber talented scoring creator in Trae Young with lengthy two-way versatility.

The collection of talent is clear as day; the next question is how quickly this group gels.

On paper these players can fit together, complement each other, and may even create a sum larger than its parts.

What should the Magic's 3 primary game plan goals in tonight's matchup against this new-look Atlanta squad?

1. Make life difficult for Trae Young

Trae Young and Jalen Johnson walking
Feb 9, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) and guard Trae Young (11) against the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images


In their opening day loss to Toronto, Trae scored 22 PTS with 5 AST (2 TO) and 1 STL on 56% TS% hitting 11/13 FT.

The best pick-and-pop threat Trae's ever played with, Kristaps Porzingis, made an immediate impact, drilling 4/7 3P for 20 PTS.

Through one game, the gameplan still must start with containing or at least slowing down what the other team does best; for years that meant trying to contain Trae as a scorer without giving away the pass, aka slowing him down with one defender without asking others to leave their man to help.

Now, teams have more versatile Hawks scorers and defenders in the frontcourt to deal with – Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher, Asa Newell.

Then the backcourt is full of complementary depth: Dyson Daniels' defense, Luke Kennard's 3pt spacing, Nickeil Alexander-Walker's two-way feel.

First things first: Cut off the head of the snake.

2. Jalen Suggs Pick Six 4pt Swings & 2nd Chance Points

Data Viz showing 2nd Chance PTS and PTS off Turnover Team Leaders
MANDATORY CREDIT: Ryan Kaminski-@BeyondTheRK

In a game with 10 lead changes that was tied 13 times, two big differences in Orlando's opening day victory over Miami were the Magic's margin in 2nd Chance Points and Points Off Turnovers.

Crashing the glass will remain a priority for this team all season, as the roster is built to be strong, tall, big at every position in one way or another.

Another huge swing factor for this team is wreaking havoc when it matters most, forcing turnovers, and scoring quickly off of them.

The data viz above (small sample alert) shows team leaders in two miscellaneous scoring categories after every team's first game or two.

Note that Orlando's 25 Points Off Turnovers against Miami is a per game average that would lead the league if it were to continue. The 8pt margin in 2nd Chance Points was huge against the Heat, a common theme throughout the preseason, with Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze making impact putbacks and offensive boards.

Down by four with five to play, Orlando saw a block from Paolo, a steal from Suggs, with one block and five boards (!) from Wendell, hustling for winning plays.

Suggs averages a Pick Six and a chasedown block every game at this point. His fellow backcourt dawg Desmond Bane is diving for loose balls already.

Franz and Black are elite perimeter defenders with high two-way feel for the game. Goga, Wendell, Isaac always protect the rim.

The Magic's defense is built on rebounding and forcing turnovers; cashing in on the easy scoring opportunities those create makes a huge difference on the margins.

3. Slow down Jalen Johnson

Jalen Suggs and Jalen Johnson fight for loose ball
Jan 7, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) and Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) go after the rebound during the second half at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Hawks may be 0-1, but it wasn't because of Jalen Johnson:

22 PTS - 8 AST (3 TO) - 7 REB - 1 BLK -1 STL on 63% TS% against the Raptors.

On defense, sometimes you have to give up one thing to plug a hole elsewhere, like a crew trying to save a sinking ship.

Orlando should prioritize containing Trae Young and Jalen Johnson as offensive hubs. How? By fully loading their incredible 1-on-1 defenders using single coverage with a smidge of active hands off-ball help.

The Magic have multiple impact defenders to guard either Atlanta scorer at any time to mix up the look, add confusion.

Orlando can utilize Suggs, Bane, Franz, Black, and even Isaac at point of attack to guard Trae Young throughout the game.

Franz, Isaac, Black, Wendell, Goga, Paolo, and da Silva are all suitable options to defend Jalen Johnson at different moments.

The goal is to not fully double either Hawks star where others are left wide open. Make the role players beat you, but don't let Trae and Jalen create easy looks for teammates by drawing extra defenders, make them work for a tough shot through the buzzer every possession.


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Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK