NBA Draft Lottery Odds: How Low Can Mavs Go?
Once carrying championship expectations, the 36-39 Dallas Mavericks are now on the outside looking in as the No. 11 seed in the Western Conference with seven games remaining in the regular season.
Dallas has lost four in a row and are the 10th-worst team in the NBA. Should the season finish in like manner, the Mavericks will be looking at a potential lottery pick later in summertime. Just how good of a chance do they have at winning, or securing a top-four selection? NBA.com released their draft format earlier this season to explain:
The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday, May 16. ESPN will air the results live at 8 p.m. ET. The 38th annual NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2023 NBA Draft. Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2022-23 regular-season records.
Team > Odds for No. 1 Pick
Team 1 > 14.0%, Team 2 > 14.0%, Team 3 >14.0%, Team 4 > 12.5%, Team 5 > 10.5%, Team 6 > 9.0%, Team 7 > 7.5%, Team 8 > 4.5%, Team 9 > 4.5%, Team 10 > 4.5%, Team 11 > 1.8%, Team 12 > 1.7%, Team 13 > 1.0%, Team 14 > 0.5%
The odds favor the bottom three teams in the league, gifting them each a 14-percent chance at the top slot. Teams No. 4 and No. 5 also hold over 10-percent chances. Every team after that will hold odds in descending order between nine and 0.5 percent.
As it stands, Dallas would have a 4.5-percent chance at having first dibs on the incoming draft class. Should they fail to get lucky and obtain a top-four pick, they would be handed the No. 10 overall selection, assuming a team behind them doesn't jump ahead into the top four.
Dallas' 2023 first-round pick is top-10 protected, meaning it will convey to the New York Knicks if it ends up being pick No. 11 or higher. It is the final pick owed to the Knicks from the Kristaps Porzingis Trade in 2019.
The Mavericks are in position to make a final surge as they are only one game out of the No. 10 seed and final play-in position in the West. They are also only two games out of the No. 7 seeded New Orleans Pelicans.
All hope is not lost, but coach Jason Kidd will have to lead the Mavs to more wins than losses and hope for ill fortune from the teams ahead of them in order to prolong their season. If that doesn't happen, though, a promising prospect would be a nice consolation prize for bottoming out.
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