Mavs Film Study: Dereck Lively II Brings Major Upside as Defensive Anchor & Finisher
DALLAS — After trading down from the 10th spot in the 2023 NBA Draft, the Dallas Mavericks used the 12th pick to add former Duke center Dereck Lively II. His development will be a vital element to the team's long-term success as the focus remains to build around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
After a slower start than anticipated to Lively's collegiate basketball career, he got comfortable in key areas and his impact became apparent. From Jan. 21 to the end of the season, he averaged 6.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, and shot 69.4 percent from the floor while playing 25.0 minutes per game. Duke posted a 14-4 record in those 18 games. He later became one of the beneficiaries of the pre-draft process to solidify his stock.
Following a video review from all of Lively's minutes during his sole collegiate season, let's dive into some key observations about his strengths and weaknesses.
Impressive Impact as Weak-Side Help Defender
There is still plenty of development to be had, but Lively has a lot of impressive tools that could one day lead to him being a genuine force defensively. His length and athleticism make for an impressive weak-side shot blocking presence and as he adds strength to his frame, his verticality in the paint will become forceful. To put his shot blocking into perspective, he recorded 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes.
Lively's best defensive trait from Day 1 will likely be his weak-side help contributions. He makes his presence felt a rim protector and shot blocker in these situations, often managing to effectively time a play on the ball. He will likely be a nightmare for players that like to play below the rim since he can highpoint the ball in ways not many tend to be capable of doing.
It appears at times that Lively's physical tools enable him to come up with blocks that offensive players didn't estimate were possible, whether he's stationed near the paint after guarding a non-shooting center, or making a low-man rotation from the weak-side corner with the offense spaced out.
One of the more threatening elements that Lively brings to a defense is his ability to make a play against above-the-rim athletes after making a low-man rotation. He makes it look easy in the examples below, but it's incredibly challenging to rotate to the opposite side of the rim and blow up a finish attempt in such a manner. For a team that lacked any dynamic element for low-man personnel, this is a big asset.
There will be teams that Lively faces that attempt to go with a stretch-five or play small with a lineup that features a shooting threat at all five spots. Having closing speed and vertical explosion to an extent that affords him the ability to make this type of low-man rotation. As a result, he could help to diminish the value for the opposition to deploy such a lineup or strategy.
With such a long wingspan, Lively displayed the capability to protect the rim in situations he was stationed deep in the paint. These are the type of sequences that only a true interior presence would prove capable of achieving, while an undersized option simply lacks the intangibles to do so. It's a tremendous way of making perimeter talents second guess their judgement on rim attacks. He will need to add more size to his frame to absorb contact, but the potential is there.
There are some sequences that Lively manages to get a hand on the basketball despite it being highly improbable that a player would be able to achieve. Again, it's a testament to being 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-7 wingspan and having explosiveness. If a perimeter player threw up a high arching, awkward attempt after getting caught without a better option on a drive, he may just still block it.
One of the more impressive aspects of Lively's development early in his basketball career has been the continued maturation of his timing when meeting a player on the way to the rim and engaging in verticality. It's difficult to master for any big, but he made strides in getting to the appropriate positioning and had some examples where he managed to avoid fouling after staying vertical.
The ability to make dynamic shot blocking sequences for Lively goes beyond high pointing the basketball with his leaping ability. His length and timing enable him to rotate in help and blow up a shot attempt from an offensive player's drive since he has the length to do so. Notice a theme? While having a long wingspan isn't an automatic source of success for a defender, the players who do utilize it properly can be special.
In practice, Lively's teammates will have greater margin for error when attempting to contain dribble penetration since they can funnel the offensive player to a shot blocker capable of making defensive plays with a high degree of difficulty. If a team wants to deploy a scheme that runs shooters off the line or aggressively goes over in ball screen coverage, it becomes enhanced by a defender of this nature.
While recording a flashy block certainly manages to frequent a highlight reel, it's vital for a rim protector to master the art of using verticality to pressure finish attempts when the aggressive block attempt isn't what the situation commands. While fouling is undoubtedly still something to address, Lively displayed some necessary progression with his timing and discipline in these situations.
Intriguing Versatility in Ball Screen Coverage & Switching
There is still plenty of development required, but regardless, the Mavs haven't deployed a shot blocking presence of this caliber in a very long time. After Lively establishes himself in the NBA, opposing players will have to account for him. He has shown flashes of being able to do anything ranging from play up, hedge, and switch, in addition to drop coverage.
When Lively plays up in ball screen coverage, he currently seems to thrive most when he's retreating to either solidify positioning to pressure a finish deep on a drive, or when outright contesting on the trail. For a guard attempting to create and needing to make split-second judgements, there may be a misunderstanding in thinking getting to the rim for a favorable outcome is an option.
Not only is it challenging for the initiator to get to the rim when Lively plays closer to the level of the screen, but it appears more difficult to get a shot off cleanly on a pull-up jumper. He has the foot speed to take care of business when playing in space and his length long reach does the rest of the work by enabling him to more tightly pressure the release when other bigs may be unable.
The initiator may look to dish the ball to the roller if a window looks available for a favorable shot attempt after the catch. Lively has the tools necessary to make even that a deceiving option. He can recover back to the roller and makes it challenging for a clean shot attempt after closing the gap. It's not uncommon for a forced shot attempt to occur or just a general blow up of the possession.
If the opposition is led by a pull-up shooting threat with dynamic perimeter shooting ability or the goal is to deny a switch, having the big defender hedge-and-recover are viable options if capable. In order to be a viable candidate to do so, a big man has to be quick enough to make that initial hedge and closing speed to recover back onto the screener. Lively just might be capable in this area.
Any defender will have to be capable of holding their own after switching since teams will find ways to hunt the weakest link. Lively has enough lateral quickness to hold up when left on an island in isolation defense against most perimeter players. The reach he has when contesting jump shots creates a much greater margin for error than what the typical big would face in these situations because he can pressure pull-ups or step-backs, while also being able to recover at the rim.
Must Reduce Fouling & Establish Greater Discipline
For all of the intriguing attributes that have been highlighted about Lively in this breakdown, it's important to understand, those are the best-case sequences. As he develops in the NBA, the idea is for those plays to become the regular occurrence in how he executes, but regardless, there are still inconsistencies that must be reduced.
The rate in which Lively committed fouls stood out as a major improvement area. Before he can be fully trusted to anchor a defense for long stretches of game action, he must avoid sending opponents to the free throw line in avoidable situations and avoid putting himself in foul trouble with a rate of 5.3 fouls per 40 minutes.
As previously mentioned, Lively showed improvement in his timing and use of verticality, but there are still things to clean up in that regard. What's encouraging about his potential is that he often gets to the spot when rotating to protect the rim. At times, he's he's making unnecessary contact that leads to a shooting foul as opposed to making a well-timed jump or using proper verticality mechanics.
When helping in the paint, Lively sometimes will take an improper angle and be too aggressive in trying to blow up the play. Again, he did improve in this area as the season progressed, but it will take some time to get used to making judgement calls against NBA talent and athleticism when looking to be the interior enforcer in help.
One aspect of taking proper angles involves not becoming buried too deep in the paint as a drive is taking place. It's not the most common shortcoming in Lively's ongoing development, but he must remain attentive as the anchor of the defense to make a quick rotation, even when the ball is moving. This is especially vital if the defense chooses to run shooters off the line.
Whether it's on a help rotation or just guarding a big attempting to make a play in the paint, Lively has to clean up improperly timed jumps leading to fouls. It's not uncommon for a big man prospect to be too reactive to shot fakes,. That applies to Lively, who generally is a dynamic shot blocker, but those types of talents can get caught trying to make the big play at the wrong time by a crafty player.
For as intriguing as Lively's potential for defensive versatility when guarding in space showed to be earlier in this breakdown, it's important to factor in that he still has to cut down on fouls in those situations. He is prone to hip checking when attempting to contain at the point of attack, or when making the switch.
With the Western Conference Finals featuring a head-to-head matchup of Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis at the five spot, it will be necessary for the Mavs to have a bigger center capable of holding his own. Lively struggled too often when facing more physically imposing matchups at Duke. He likely needs to strengthen his lower body, which again, that's typical for a big man prospect. He allowed 0.962 points per possession (29th percentile) when guarding post-ups.
Electric Play-Finisher on Lobs & Drop-Off Passes
There are real limitations that Lively faces as an offensive player, largely limiting to being an interior play-finisher at the start of his NBA career. Luckily, he's entering a situation that affords him the advantage of playing in an offense led by Doncic and Irving, two of the league's premier creators.
Lively shot an impressive 72-93 (77.4 percent) at the rim at Duke, with an output of 1.581 points per possession. Among all NCAA Division I players, his output per possession was tied for seventh in the nation. He was heavily reliant on finishes considering they accounted for 80.2 percent of his overall field goal attempts, which placed him in the 94th percentile for the rate of field goal attempts occurring from this particular area. It will be a massive component of his early career impact.
Doncic is one of the NBA's true dominant forces in pick-and-roll orchestration. He routinely plays an instrumental role in Dwight Powell finishing with efficiency that ranks among the best in the league. A significant part of that is the connection they have on lobs out of high pick-and-roll. What makes Lively's potential intriguing in this area is how Doncic can take advantage of his larger athlete with a much greater catch radius by commanding attention himself, then utilizing the pass.
It's a nightmare for a defense when Lively is able to get behind the big defender on the roll since it doesn't take much for him to have the necessary conditions to go up for a lob. With how threatening Doncic and Irving are as scorers out of ball screens, there are times when they draw the big to play closer to the level of the screen, which will make it easier for Lively to slip out of the pick and go for that lob.
Lively should immediately provide an emphatic presence as a relief option around the rim. When a teammate generates rim pressure and command a help rotation from the big, there is little the defense can do to recover in time. Lively is so springy that he makes quick work of finishing chances in these situations. All it takes is a drop-off pass or a lob and he's going to flush it home.
With how quick Lively is to leave his feet after receiving a drop-off pass, it's challenging for interior help defense to get away with losing track of him before the recovery. Whether it's just a full commitment to help on a drive, or there is ball watching that occurs, he stays active along the baseline to make himself available for the pass in the weak spot of the defense. Doncic or Irving will find him in these plays.
The same can be said about being a relief on post-ups, which is a real luxury for a team that has an elite threat in this area such as Doncic. Think about how much attention Doncic garners as a big guard when he's taking a smaller defender into the post? If the help rotation comes from the dunker spot, he can dart the ball to Lively.
Another common situation a big man will be placed into when screening for Doncic is the need to make a play out of a short-roll. Many defense will hard hedge or outright hard double the Slovenian superstar to get the ball out of his hands, putting the big in a 4-on-5 situation. Lively displayed an ability to make the right passing read when processing how the defense is choosing to rotate.
Must Develop Weak-Hand, Contact & Traffic Finishes
For as efficient Lively managed to be as a finisher in mostly a play-finishing role, there is still a lot of development that needs to take place when he's attempting to score in the paint outside of those opportunities. He displayed limitations in his general finish touch against traffic, came up short against contact, and particularly lacked a reliable left hand in situations he otherwise should have executed. When taking a closer look at Lively's scoring production, he shot 13-25 (52.0 percent) on layups and just 3-10 (30.0 percent) on hook shots.
Even when using his right hand without encountering a great pressure from an interior defender, Lively had too many instances when he simply whiffed on the finish. This is the first order of business to refine so he can at least be more of a viable option when a play doesn't lead to a lob or uncontested finish attempt. The burden on the perimeter players to create would be reduced if so.
It's far from uncommon for a prospect to struggle when attempting to finish with their non-dominant hand. Lively certainly is among these players. He has a long way to go as far as developing confidence and execution with his tough as a left-hand finisher. Even in situations when it's a point blank look without pressure, he was inconsistent.
If a defender is able to help against the drive then recover back in time to be in a position to get vertical against Lively, he tends to struggle in his finishing execution. Whether he's attempting to finish through the defender's chest, or is simply attempting to score against verticality with a tight contest, there is a significant amount of improvement that must occur before he can be considered a threat.
With there still being a need to sharpen finishing touch and left-hand consistency on play-finishing touches, as one might expect, he has a lot of work to do in order to become a threat as a post scorer. With how often teams switch against the Mavs, proving capable of making a smaller defender pay would provide a major relief option for Doncic and Irving to lean on as another option after the switch. It just remains to be seen how long that would take and how effective he ultimately will be.
Jump Shooting Still Work in Progress
For as much excitement as Lively generated in the pre-draft process for his uncontested shooting results in workouts, he has a lot to prove in actual game settings before it can be factored in as a weapon for an offense. He shot just 2-13 (15.4 percent) on catch-and-shoot jump shots at Duke.
Opposing teams that left Lively wide open behind the 3-point line didn't necessary feel like they were made to pay by him taking advantage. Until he proves capable of converting at a high clip in a game setting, there is little reason for the defense to view him as a credible floor spacing threat.
Key Takeaways
In terms of the basics of being a dirty work specialist, Lively should prove capable of impacting the game at the NBA level immediately. He has an incredible catch radius and leaping ability to be an emphatic finisher. He needs to cut down on fouling and fine-tune his technique, but there is a clear Day 1 potential as a weak-side shot blocker, big defender in ball screen coverages, and having versatility to play in space. His offensive game will require a lot of work, though.
Grant Afseth is a Dallas Mavericks reporter for DallasBasketball.com and an NBA reporter for NBA Analysis Network. He previously covered the Indiana Pacers and NBA for CNHI's Kokomo Tribune and various NBA teams for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. Follow him on Twitter (@grantafseth), Facebook (@grantgafseth), and YouTube (@grantafseth).
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