NBA Cup Power Rankings: Can Anyone Unseat the Thunder?

One-loss Oklahoma City unsurprisingly leads the way as the knockout round begins, but each of the seven other teams has a case for the Cup title.

Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are the team to beat in the NBA Cup. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The NBA Cup begins the knockout round Tuesday. Three teams from each conference earned automatic berths by winning their respective groups along with one more team from each conference via wild card berths.

The field should result in some exciting games. While it’s certainly up for debate whether the NBA Cup has made fans care more about early season games, the players visibly increase their effort in Cup games. The prize for winning the in-season tournament is $500,000 for each player on the roster, and everybody gets a bit of cash just for making it to the quarterfinals. It’s enough of a motivator to inspire greater competition—especially in the elimination rounds. 

As we break down each NBA Cup team in championship power rankings, keep in mind that while these rankings are mostly based on overall talent and skill level consideration, extra consideration was given to how the teams performed in the group stage. 

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NBA Cup Schedule

Quarterfinals

• No. 4 Miami Heat at No. 1 Orlando Magic, 6 p.m. ET Tuesday (Prime Video)
• No. 3 New York Knicks at No. 2 Toronto Raptors, 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (Prime Video)
• No. 4 Phoenix Suns at No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday (Prime Video)
• No. 3 San Antonio Spurs at No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET Wednesday (Prime Video)

Semifinals

• East Semifinal, 5:30 p.m. ET Dec. 13, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video)
• West Semifinal, 9 p.m. ET Dec. 13, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video)

Championship

• Semifinal winners, 8:30 p.m. ET Dec. 16, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (Prime Video)

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NBA Cup Championship Power Rankings

8. Phoenix Suns

Group stage stats: 3–1 record, +31 point differential

Why they’ll win: Against all preseason expectations, the Suns are dangerous because of their defense. Phoenix ranks first in the NBA in steals per game entering play on Tuesday and overall force the second-most turnovers in the league. The Suns take care of the ball on their own end, too, and do a tremendous job limiting opposing shot attempts as a result; the team allows 85.5 field goal attempts per game behind only the Celtics for the league lead. 

The offense has been slightly more predictable but still surprising. Devin Booker is leading the way, as expected, with a clean 25 points per game average. But the supporting cast has been better than anyone thought. Dillon Brooks is proving to be a reliable No. 2 option and rotation players Grayson Allen and Collin Gillespie have chipped in with key performances in big wins. There’s plenty to like about this scrappy Phoenix team that nearly stole Group A from the Thunder. 

Suns guard Devin Booker is averaging 25 points per game. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Why they won’t: Booker suffered a groin injury last week and his availability is up in the air for Wednesday’s rematch against Oklahoma City. Without his production it becomes very hard to make a case for the Suns. They earned a win without him after he got hurt in the first quarter against the Lakers, but counting on Brooks and Gillepsie to combine for 58 points, as they did against Los Angeles, is a tough sell. The team’s most recent game, a 19-point loss to the Rockets in which Phoenix shot under 40% from the floor, seems to be a more accurate reflection of the product without Booker. 

Maybe if Booker comes back the Suns can make some noise. Without him they won’t have enough firepower to beat any potential Cup opponents. 

7. Miami Heat

Group play stats: 3–1 record, +49 point differential 

Why they’ll win: The Heat’s new whirlwind offense featuring virtually no pick-and-rolls has been stellar. Miami ranks third in points per game entering Tuesday and boasts five players averaging at least 15 points, led by Norman Powell’s 24.8 points per game. When paired with coach Erik Spoelstra’s typically strong defensive structure built upon the elite talents of center Bam Adebayo, the Heat put forth an effective display of two-way basketball. Add a dash of Spoelstra magic via in-game adjustments that can swing the tide of a postseason-like game, and the Heat have a strong case. 

Miami also had to handle business to qualify for the NBA Cup knockout round and deserves some credit for it. The Heat are the East’s wild card team and squeezed out two wins in the final week of group play to earn a spot; their only loss came to the Knicks (who won the group) by eight points. 

Heat guard Norman Powell leads five Miami players averaging at least 15 points per game. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Why they won’t: The Heat do not enter the elimination round of the NBA Cup with much momentum. Miami has lost three straight, two of which came to bottom-feeding West teams in the Mavericks and Kings. The defense has been too leaky for the offense to overcome, leading to a negative net rating over the last five games that ranks 22nd in the league. They also aren’t a particularly good shooting team. There are shooters on the roster, but they rank 21st in three-point attempts and 19th in three-pointers made per game. In today’s NBA that means there isn’t much room for error. 

This is a familiar version of Miami: a high-floor-but-low-ceiling team. It was enough to get them past the group stage, but it becomes difficult to buy into the product in the face of win-or-go-home circumstances. 

6. Orlando Magic

Group stage stats: 4–0 record, +64 point differential

Why they’ll win: The Magic have steadied after an ugly start to the season, and they’ve done so despite the extended absence of Paolo Banchero. Desmond Bane has settled into his role and Franz Wagner stepped up big time once Banchero went down. Jalen Suggs is causing chaos defensively and Anthony Black seems on the verge of a breakout. This is a talented team that has rediscovered its identity defensively, climbing into the top 10 in defensive rating despite an awful start to the season on that end. The Magic also enjoy a boost in these rankings thanks to their tough path. They had to beat out a scalding Pistons team to earn a berth and recorded dominant wins against two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the Celtics and Sixers. 

However, they’ll be playing shorthanded. Wagner suffered an ankle sprain on Sunday and will likely miss at least a few weeks. The Magic just proved they can win games at a solid clip with one scoring wing but swapping Wagner with Banchero isn’t as simple as it sounds. 

Magic guard Desmond Bane has settled into his role in Orlando. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Why they won’t: The Magic are still prone to exceptionally ugly basketball at times and, unlike last season, have suffered enough defensive lapses that it’s tough to count on them to compensate on that end. They don’t move the ball terribly well offensively, ranking in the bottom third of the league in assists per game, and much of the offensive production comes from the free throw line (Orlando leads the NBA in free throw attempts per game). It also remains to be seen how the team operates with Banchero and no Wagner. They kept it close against the Knicks on Sunday after Wagner went down in the first quarter but still lost, 106–100. 

Generally the Magic are good enough to have a chance every night. But a tight whistle or a bad shooting night can easily spell doom for the Magic—assuming they can seamlessly reintegrate Banchero into the lineup again and deal with the absence of Wagner without any bumps. They’ll have to play their best basketball to earn a shot at the NBA Cup. 

5. San Antonio Spurs

Group play stats: 3–1 record, +26 point differential 

Why they’ll win: Despite losing Victor Wembanyama halfway through November to a calf strain, the Spurs won Group C with two impressive victories over the feisty Trail Blazers and contending Nuggets. The main reason why is also the main reason to believe in San Antonio’s Cup chances: De’Aaron Fox. The All-Star point guard took a few games to find his footing after missing the opening stretch recovering from surgery, but put his foot on the gas after Wembanyama went down. Since the French superstar got hurt on Nov. 14, Fox has averaged 26.8 points and 6.8 assists per game, leading the Spurs to a 7–3 record in that span. 

Even if spearheaded by Fox, it’s been a team effort. In the last 10 games, five other Spurs are averaging over 10 points per contest. And they could get their superstar back. Wembanyama’s initial recovery timeline put him at two to four weeks; it has been three weeks since he got hurt. If he returns to play alongside a healthy and rolling Fox, San Antonio suddenly becomes a big problem for any opponent. 

Spurs guard De'Aaron Fox has averaged 26.8 points and 6.8 assists per game since Victor Wembanyama was injured Nov. 14. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Why they won’t: As of now Wembanyama’s return is only theoretical. The Spurs struggle to defend without their star center. Luke Kornet is more than adequate as a backup but overmatched athletically as the starter. The Spurs own the 19th-ranked defensive rating in the NBA since Wembanyama went down. Fox can struggle as a point-of-attack defender when he has to carry this level of offensive load, too. 

The Spurs are not built like some teams that tend to completely collapse without their No. 1 player on the court. But they aren’t quite good enough to make a case as a serious NBA Cup threat without Wembanyama. 

4. Toronto Raptors

Group stage stats: 4–0 record, +55 point differential

Why they’ll win: The Raptors went on a tear in November, losing only three games over the course of the month with two coming in the final days on a back-to-back. They were tremendous in group play, too, handily beating the Cavaliers and Hawks before taking care of business against the moribund Wizards and Pacers. 

The Raptors’ case for winning the Cup, though, comes down to their starting five. The concept behind Toronto’s roster this season is to put five good players on the floor who complement each other when healthy. So far, so good on that front. In some ways the team is a less dangerous version of the 2024–25 Celtics. The talent of their starting five is, in the aggregate, greater than what most of their opponents can trot out. That means winning more often than not. 

Raptors forward Brandon Ingram will try to get Toronto to the NBA Cup championship game. / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Why they won’t: That touted starting five is missing a key player in RJ Barrett, who sprained his knee last week and won’t be back until next week at the earliest. As a result, the Raptors have come back down to earth following their scorching November stretch. In the last five games, Toronto ranks 27th in the NBA in net rating and enters Tuesday on a three-game losing streak. Additionally the Raptors suffered some poor luck and drew one of the few East teams who can match their starting five in the Knicks, who walloped Toronto by 22 points on Nov. 30. 

The Raptors have enough talent to have a puncher’s chance every night. The question is if that’s enough to beat equally skilled opponents, especially without Barrett in the lineup. The answer will define Toronto’s NBA Cup hopes.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

Group stage stats: 4–0 record, +46 point differential

Why they’ll win: The Lakers have an incredibly dangerous three-headed monster of Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and LeBron James. James hasn’t settled in yet after missing the first stretch of the season with injury but bet against him under bright lights at your own peril. Dončić and Reaves are combining to average 63.4 points and 15.8 assists per game. They can light up the scoreboard at a moment’s notice with enough firepower to outpace just about any opponent. 

The reshaped roster around the trio has proven to be effective, too. Deandre Ayton is playing some of the best basketball we’ve seen from the former No. 1 pick in years. Jake LaRavia and (when healthy) Marcus Smart have added some defensive chops on the wings. It’s a well-rounded roster on paper and when paired with the electric start from the Dončić-Reaves combo, it’s easy to envision them going on a run. 

Why they won’t: The key to the above paragraph is “on paper.” In practice the Lakers have been great offensively but subpar otherwise. They’re below average defensively and struggle to clean the glass, ranking near the bottom of the league in total rebounds per game. While each of the Lakers’ three stars is entirely capable of taking over a game, there isn’t much room for error if any suffer an off night. 

Really the case for Los Angeles comes down to the established track record Dončić and James enjoy in big games. If they show up in a big way, as they have constantly throughout their careers, the Lakers can dominate. If not, they haven’t shown the ability to win on the margins and that spells doom. 

2. New York Knicks

Group stage stats: 3–1 record, +35 point differential 

Why they’ll win: When the starting unit is clicking there aren’t many teams as dangerous as the Knicks. In 47 minutes with Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns sharing the floor, New York has recorded a ridiculous net rating of 35.6. It’s a limited sample size thanks to injury, but the quintet is healthy and rotations fall into place nicely for Mike Brown’s squad when everyone can go. 

There's also plenty of momentum in New York’s favor. The Knicks have won three straight and four of the last five, including one big win over their quarterfinal opponents, the Raptors. It could easily be five straight if not for a puzzlingly terrible two-quarter stretch of basketball that sunk them against the Celtics. The ceiling of this team is sky high outside of those blips. 

Why they won’t: Blips though they may be, it’s impossible to ignore the Knicks’ tendency to just ... not play well. Despite plenty of experience playing together, New York will suffer stretches of disconnected basketball on both ends that have plagued most of the team’s seven losses this season. Inconsistency is an issue, and in a playoff environment, games can be lost with a handful of poor possessions. 

Otherwise the orange and blue have a great case as a contender given their talent on both ends. The Knicks just have to avoid stringing together poor spans of play. 

1. Oklahoma City Thunder 

Group stage stats: 4–0 record, +75 point differential

Why they’ll win: The Thunder not only went undefeated in the group play stage and mostly blew out their opponents, they’ve lost one freaking game all season long. One! And they’ve done most of their damage without Jalen Williams, who played for the first time this season on Nov. 28 after recovering from offseason surgery. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has somehow leveled up after winning MVP and a championship last season; the rest of the roster is matching his pace. 

Even on nights where Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t making 80% of his shots, someone will step up to ensure the Thunder earn the win, whether it’s Chet Holmgren or Ajay Mitchell. Oklahoma City is an absolute machine mowing down every team in its path, and there is a non-zero chance we are watching one of the greatest teams in NBA history given the pace they’ve set. 

The Thunder should be favorites to defend their championship this year, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them trounce every opponent en route to an NBA Cup title. 

Why they won’t win: The Thunder’s only loss this season came in a rock fight against the Trail Blazers. Both teams barely cleared 40% shooting from the floor and the game came down to effectively a coin flip in the final minutes. That appears to be the only way to beat Oklahoma City this season—and the defeat came without Williams or Holmgren. 

This team just has too many ways to win. The only hope for their opponents is to catch them on an off night (both offensively and defensively) and pray to the basketball gods. Otherwise it’s going to be mighty, mighty difficult to knock off the defending NBA champs.

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