What NBA History Says About the Brooklyn Nets' 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

As the Brooklyn Nets wait patiently for the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery, fans can only hope and pray that the basketball gods bless the franchise with its first top-three pick since 2010 (Derrick Favors at No. 3). Since that year, the Nets have not owned a lottery pick until 2025 (Egor Dёmin at No. 8).

But 2026 is the ultimate opportunity for Brooklyn to draft its first franchise superstar in decades. The top of this year's class is loaded with talent, with the top three being a consensus generational trio of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer.

The lottery, taking place on May 10 at 3 p.m. ET in Chicago, will decide their fate, but what does history tell us about the Nets' current position? At No. 3 in the standings (20-62), they share a 14% chance at the No. 1 and a 52.1% chance at the top four with the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards. Since the latest lottery reform began in 2019, here is what the numbers say:

No. 1 Teams: Seven Years of Disappointment

The team with the worst record in the NBA has never ended up with the No. 1 pick. On average, this spot moves -2.57 picks, and without direction (positive or negative shift), 2.71. Across seven years, the total shift of this lottery spot is -18, but statistically, it can't fall below No. 5.

The most common outcome of the last seven years has happened nearly half the time. In 2025, 2024 and 2023, the No. 1 spot in the lottery dropped four spots to pick at No. 5. In 2024 and 2023, both of those instances involved the Detroit Pistons.

No. 2 Teams: History Favors Them the Most

The No. 2 team in the lottery standings is probably the safest based on history. On average, this spot moves -1.43, and without direction, 1.57. Across seven years, the total shift of this lottery spot is -10, but it can't fall below the No. 6 pick. Only one team has ever stayed put at No. 2, that being the Washington Wizards in 2024.

The most common result of the last seven years is between two outcomes, and they are practically opposites. In 2022 and 2021, the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons shifted one spot up to No. 1. In 2020 and 2019, the Cleveland Cavaliers shifted three spots down to No. 5, oddly enough.

No. 3 Teams: High Risk, High Reward

The Nets are the No. 3 team in the lottery standings, and while history has been kind to this position a few times, the basketball gods have also struck it down in quite a number of instances. On average, this spot moves just one pick down, and without direction, 2.14. Across seven years, the total shift of this lottery spot is -7, but statistically, it can't fall below No. 7.

Those stats should scream 'best case scenario' of the top three, and in 2023 and 2020, the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves were lucky enough to move up two spots to No. 1. However, the other two most common scenarios had the No. 3 spot moving down two to No. 5 (2022, 2021) and three to No. 6 (2024, 2019).

Overall, the most remarkable statistics to note are the Wizards being the only team to ever remain in their projected position and only nine of 27 total teams to ever remain in the top three. The Nets have a 52.1% chance at the top four, but history's 33.3% success rate at the top three gives them a lot less hope at one of Dybantsa, Peterson or Boozer.

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