Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Timberwolves-Nuggets)

There’s a chance that two Western Conference playoff series wrap up on Monday night, as the Oklahoma City Thunder are eyeing a sweep of the Phoenix Suns while the Minnesota Timberwolves have pushed the Denver Nuggets to the brink ahead of tonight’s Game 5.

Here’s a quick look at the slate on Monday, as there’s a potential for a ton of drama in two of the three matchups:

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic (ORL leads 2-1)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns (OKC leads 3-0)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets (MIN leads 3-1)

Oklahoma City has a chance to sweep a first-round opponent for the third postseason in a row, and the defending champs are a lock to win their first-round series, moving to -115 to win the NBA Finals after taking a 3-0 lead.

In the Eastern Conference, the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons have their backs against the wall on Monday night against the No. 8 Orlando Magic, who took Games 1 and 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. Orlando has matched the physicality of the Pistons, and Paolo Banchero and company have shown why so many people around the NBA were high on Orlando coming into the 2025-26 season.

Cade Cunningham and the Pistons need to find some answers on offense, as they rank 14th out of 16 playoff teams in offensive rating and 12th in effective field goal percentage through three games.

The final matchup of the night may be the most intriguing on the docket, as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets need a win to keep their season alive. Denver was heavily favored to beat the Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs, but it lost Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota to fall behind 3-1. Even with Donte DiVincenzo (torn Achilles) and Anthony Edwards (left knee hyperextension) going down with injuries, the Wolves are -150 favorites to win this series.

Still, oddsmakers have set them as 10.5-point underdogs in Game 5, a sign that Denver should be able to force a Game 6 in Minnesota later on this week.

After a few strong days on Friday and Saturday (4-2 overall), I’m back in the positive for this season (+1.41) when it comes to my NBA Best Bets. We’re well on our way to 600 bets in the 2025-26 campaign, and I’m targeting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the prop market as one of today’s plays.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and analysis behind each of Monday’s best bets!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 270-228 (+1.41 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1561-1466-27 (+34.56 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-116)
Jalen Suggs OVER 13.5 Points (-124)
Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets UNDER 221.5 (-105)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-116)

SGA dominated Game 3 with Jalen Williams (hamstring) out of the lineup, scoring 42 points on 15-of-18 shooting from the field, missing just one shot in the game from two-point range.

He's now scored 37 and 42 points in the last two games in this series after dropping just 25 in Game 1. SGA also took 25 shots in Game 2 and 18 shots in Game 3, showing that he's going to have a huge role on that end (as he always does) with Williams out.

During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game, and the Suns don't have many answers for him -- especially if Jordan Goodwin (questionable, calf) doesn't play in this matchup.

I think this line is pretty reasonable for the reigning league MVP, as he's averaging over 20 shots and 12 free throw attempts per game in this series.

Jalen Suggs OVER 13.5 Points (-124)

Magic guard Jalen Suggs has been everywhere in this first-round series, and his effort on both ends is a major reason why Orlando has a 2-1 series lead.

I considered a points, rebounds and assists combo prop for Suggs on Monday, but I’m going to keep things simple and take him to score over 13.5 points instead.

Suggs has cleared this line in all three games in this series, finishing with 16, 19 and 15 points while shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 32.1 percent from 3. Those percentages are ugly, but this play is about the volume for Suggs on the offensive end.

The former lottery pick is taking over 15 shots (including over nine 3-pointers) per game in this series, and he’s gotten up at least eight shots from 3 in each game. That gives him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop.

Suggs averaged 13.8 points per game in the regular season despite playing several stretches on a minutes restriction due to injury. He’s been unleashed in the playoffs, playing at least 31 minutes in every game.

As long as he continues to get up shots at a high clip, Suggs is undervalued at this line on Monday night.

Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets UNDER 221.5 (-105)

Anthony Edwards’ knee injury has opened the door for the Nuggets to make a comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the first round, but – for me – they’re a stay away as a 10.5-point favorites in Game 5.

Instead, I’m looking to the UNDER with the total set at 221.5.

These teams have combined for 221, 233, 209 and 208 points in four games in this series, and the Wolves are now down their top offensive player in Edwards and their top 3-point shooter in DiVincenzo. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota’s offense take a bit of a step back on Monday night – especially on the road.

Meanwhile, Denver went from the No. 1 offense in the NBA in the regular season to the No. 12 offense so far in the playoffs. Rudy Gobert has done a great job on Nikola Jokic, and injuries to Aaron Gordon (questionable for Game 5) and Peyton Watson have limited Denver’s ceiling on both ends of the floor.

The Nuggets have scored less than 100 points in back-to-back games, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they still struggle since the Wolves held them to just 42 second-half points after Edwards went down in Game 4.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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