Nuggets' Latest 2026-27 Season Win Projection Is Still Too Low

The 2026 offseason is winding down for the Denver Nuggets now that they have resolved their Peyton Watson issue and signed veteran wing DeMar DeRozan. We now have a clear idea of what the team will look like for the 2026-27 season, making it much easier to evaluate their expectations.

It is hard to tell whether the Nuggets have actually improved this offseason, with key departures in Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas being replaced by DeRozan, Marvin Bagley, Alpha Diallo, and Trevon Brazile, but with the same starting lineup kept intact, we can be sure they will not decline too much.

Despite keeping their core together, with Watson and Hardaway Jr. as the only losses that might sting, the Nuggets are projected to have a worse 2026-27 season than the previous one. After finishing last season with a 54-28 record, the Nuggets are projected to finish in third place in the West again this season, but with a 51-31 record, per ESPN's NBA insiders.

Projected Western Conference playoff picture

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama greets Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic — Jan 4, 2025; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) greets Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) before a game at Frost Bank Center. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Rightfully, the Nuggets are still projected to finish in the top three in the Western Conference. Sure, teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers have made significant changes this offseason, but nobody has truly jumped Denver as the third-best team in the conference. Here's a full look at ESPN's projected West playoff picture:

San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
OKC Thunder (60-22)
Denver Nuggets (51-31)
Houston Rockets (51-31)
Minnesota Timberwolves (50-32)
Los Angeles Lakers (45-37)
Portland Trail Blazers (43-39)
Phoenix Suns (42-40)
Golden State Warriors (35-47)
Utah Jazz (34-48)

Why the Nuggets will exceed this mark

It is hard to argue that the Nuggets will leapfrog either the Spurs or Thunder this season, likely staying put in third place in the West, but we should see them exceed this 51-win mark.

The Nuggets this offseason:

Added:
DeMar DeRozan
Marvin Bagley
Lonnie Walker
Tyus Jones
Spencer Jones

Lost:
Peyton Watson
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Jonas Valanciunas
Jalen Pickett

😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/AIzBKYr2xE
— Polymarket Hoops (@PolymarketHoops) August 21, 2026

Have they gotten significantly better this offseason? Of course not. But they won 54 games last season with serious injury issues. Let's take a look at some of their most notable injuries from last season:

Nuggets Player	Games Missed
Aaron Gordon	46
Christian Braun	38
Cameron Johnson	28
Peyton Watson	28
Nikola Jokic	17

It might be wishful thinking, but I'm assuming the Nuggets will have better health this season than last. Nothing went the Nuggets' way last season, as their preferred starting lineup played just 23 games together, with ten of those in the first 11 games of the season.

Still, despite those injury woes and a first-year head coach at the helm, the Nuggets won 54 games. Sure, they lost Watson and Hardaway Jr., but Jokic, Murray, and Gordon, all playing the best basketball of their careers, are enough to lead the Nuggets to 55+ wins when healthy, regardless of the supporting cast.

With the Nuggets expecting a bounce-back year from Braun and another consistent season by Johnson, their starting lineup should continue to be one of the best in the NBA. Now, with DeRozan leading the bench and surrounded by improved defenders, that is less of a concern than before.

The Nuggets still have to prove that they are legitimate title contenders, but we should see them win much closer to 55-60 games this season.

Sign up for our free Denver Nuggets On SI newsletter, and get breaking Nuggets news delivered to your inbox daily!

Add us as a preferred source on Google