What an NBA Scout Says About the Nuggets' Peyton Watson Dilemma

The Nuggets have a tricky contract dilemma on their hands in the case of restricted free agent Peyton Watson.

Dec 31, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) celebrates after scoring against the Toronto Raptors during the first half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images | Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets have a key free agent on their hands this offseason in the form of Peyton Watson.

After a breakout fourth season in Denver, Watson is eyeing a big payday to come his way as he becomes a restricted free agent. Each of his major counting stats took a step forward, highlighted by his 14.6 points per game and averaging nearly a steal and a block on the other end.

But the Nuggets could have some tough decisions to make in order to retain Watson on the books.

That's because Denver is already well above the luxury tax heading into the summer; a line that this ownership has been historically hesitant to pass. In the event Watson is re-signed onto a multi-year contract, they'd be well above that mark.

Of course, Denver could technically go above the luxury tax line to keep Watson if the front office decided it was worthwhile.

But per ESPN's Tim Bontemps, in the eyes of a Western Conference scout, that's not the most likely outcome–– and could lead to a trade revolving around Cameron Johnson or Christian Braun to keep him.

"They could easily just pay him and pay the tax, but we know how the Kroenkes operate," a West scout said. "That means sending out either Johnson or Braun, and I don't know where that lands. The injury stuff is a concern, but so is how they struggled without him."

Without Watson on the books with a new deal, the Nuggets' top-five highest paid players–– Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cameron Johnson–– are due a combined $184 million for the 2026-27 season.

Re-Signing Peyton Watson Virtually Guarantees a Big Roster Shake-Up

Adding Watson on a new contract at around, or even higher than $25 million a season, would put those six players right up against the first apron with their six contracts alone.

It's not exactly impossible to see that become a reality, but history tells us that the Nuggets wouldn't be too eager to foot that bill.

As a result, it puts names like Braun or Johnson squarely on the radar for a trade to clear the necessary cap to avoid that steep payroll number while keeping one of the roster's most important two-way players.

Dec 22, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) reacts after a play in the third quarter against the Utah Jazz at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

As to who of those two might be the more favorable name on the move, Christian Braun has a poison pill restriction until July 1st that'll almost certainly put a pause on any trade involving him until later this offseason. He might not even be dealt at all, considering how his trade value tanked across a disappointing year four.

That means Cameron Johnson, who's slated to be on an expiring, movable contract worth $23 million, could make a whole lot more sense for the Nuggets to trade to evade that luxury tax line. Doing so can allow for ample flexibility to keep Watson onboard on a new contract, and potentially someone who can elevate into the nightly starting lineup for the 2026-27 campaign.

All of the Nuggets' action to get this roster right for an improved season ahead will ramp up once the offseason gets rolling in late June, early July. But this situation alone will put Denver in prime position to shake up their current rotation in one way or another.

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