Did the Pacers make a mistake by sending 2026 first round pick for Zubac?

“Scared money don’t make money.”

That philosophy ultimately guided the Indiana Pacers as they assembled a trade package strong enough to convince the Los Angeles Clippers to part ways with 29-year-old center Ivica Zubac.

This season has been a grind for Indiana. What began as a campaign with playoff aspirations quickly turned into a gap year, as injuries forced the Pacers to recalibrate and shift their focus toward the 2026–27 season. Along the way, Indiana found itself in unfamiliar territory, hovering near the top of the inverse standings with a legitimate chance to secure premium lottery odds for the 2026 NBA Draft.

The 2026 first-round pick had come to represent one of the franchise’s most valuable assets, with only Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam being more valuable in my estimation. With that being said, there appeared to be no deal worth considering that involved surrendering that draft pick.

The Pacers, however, evaluated the situation differently. The true value of that pick was always tied to one outcome: landing in the top four. Falling outside that range would have felt like a gut punch regardless of whether Indiana retained the pick or moved it as part of a trade.

A closer look at the 2026 draft landscape reinforces that logic. The consensus top four consists of: AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson. Beyond that group, projections from picks five through nine lean heavily toward guards such as Mikal Brown Jr., Kingston Flemings, Labaron Philon, and Keaton Wagler, with Nate Ament representing one of the few frontcourt options in that range. While talented, that group is widely viewed as a step down from the top-four prospects.

By structuring the pick protections the way they did, Indiana took on calculated risk while protecting itself from the worst-case scenario. The Pacers ensured they would not miss out on one of the potential franchise-altering talents at the very top of the draft. If the pick lands between five and nine and conveys to Los Angeles, the Clippers may still find a future cornerstone—but history suggests players selected in the top four are far more likely to become All-Stars than those taken in the middle of the lottery.

Trading a pick that could land in the 5-9 range for a player that Rick Carlisle said is a “Top 10 center in the league,” is not as scary as it looks on paper.

Indiana is attempting to position itself to compete as early as the 2026–27 season. If the 2026 pick were to land outside the top four, the player selected there would likely have minimal impact on the Pacers’ championship ceiling during that window. Zubac, by contrast, fills a glaring need immediately, anchoring the center position and dramatically raising the team’s floor and ceiling.

deni — Jan 2, 2026; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) dribbles against the New Orleans Pelicans during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

History also supports the gamble. Since 2020, the five-to-nine range has produced quality NBA players (Franz Wagner, Onyeke Okongwu, Josh Giddey to name a few) but outside of a handful of players, very few are true franchise changers. Across multiple drafts, that group has yielded just one All-Star, Deni Avdija, who earned the honor for the first time this season. The talent is real, but the odds of landing a transformational piece are far slimmer.

Beyond the draft capital, the rest of Indiana’s outgoing package further contextualizes the decision. As talented as Bennedict Mathurin is, the Pacers appeared to recognize that a long-term agreement was always going to be complicated. Financial considerations aside, there was no clear path to a starting role with Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard firmly entrenched. Embracing a sixth-man role in the mold of Manu Ginóbili was not something Mathurin seemed eager to do, and Los Angeles, who had long been monitoring his availability, provides him a fresh opportunity to do so.

i jax — Jan 26, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Isaiah Jackson (22) during the game against the Atlanta Hawks during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Isaiah Jackson, meanwhile, had come to be viewed as a negative asset on the trade market. While he will get a chance to compete for minutes in Los Angeles alongside Brook Lopez and John Collins, his on-court production was not strong enough to justify a continued role in Indiana’s frontcourt rotation.

The unprotected 2029 first-round pick is another piece Indiana was comfortable parting with. Given the projected trajectory of the roster, the likelihood of that selection landing inside the top 20 appears slim, making it a probable bottom-third pick.

In the absolute worst-case scenario, Indiana’s 2026 pick lands fifth, conveying to the Clippers and leaving the Pacers without a top-four selection to pair with their core. But even in that outcome, the disappointment would have existed regardless of whether the pick was traded or retained.

Instead, Indiana walks away with a known commodity in Zubac, conserves its chance to draft a generational talent at the top of the 2026 class, avoids losing Mathurin for nothing in restricted free agency, and sidesteps the risk of overpaying a player for the simple fear of losing him to another team.

This move was “risky,” but only to a certain extent. The likelihood of the 2026 pick coming back to haunt the Indiana Pacers over the next decade feels lower than the alternative, which is Indiana retaining the selection and using it to add one of the elite young prospects at the top of the draft to its core for years to come.

You can follow me on X @AlexGoldenNBA and listen to my daily podcast, Setting The Pace, wherever you get your podcast.