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Indiana Pacers Lottery Targets Clash in March Madness First Round Upset

BYU Forward AJ Dybantsa and Texas Wing Dailyn Swain face off in early postseason matchup
Ryan Kaminski|
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) dribbles against Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) dribbles against Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

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Texas LonghornsBYU CougarsIndiana PacersMemphis GrizzliesMilwaukee Bucks
He is a super talented player, potentially the No. 1 pick in this (2026) draft.

I see myself as an NBA player in the future as well.

I am a competitor, for sure it brings that energy out of me.
Dalyn Swain on playing AJ Dybantsa

Dailyn Swain was looking forward to the marquee matchup to play AJ Dybantsa, and he delivered.

Fresh off a win in the First Four, earning the reward of facing the potential #1 pick in the first round of March Madness, the 11-seed Texas Longhorns came ready to play against the 6-seed BYU Tigers.

The game before, Swain sealed the win to beat NC State with the huge 3pt block on the final play, flashing his incredible defensive instincts, after clutch shots by Tramon Mark; madness came early.

Dailyn Swain, a potential first-round pick, is Texas' dynamic downhill driving wing who scores efficiently and effortlessly in a variety of ways, holding his own as a versatile wing defender.

Swain can dribble, pass, shoot, switch, and make quick team-first decisions as a 6'8" unreal scoring two-way wing.

I have Dailyn "The Doctor" Swain rated 5th Overall on my 2026 big board after Boozer-Peterson-Dybantsa-Wilson; I think Swain is a daydream 'two timelines' bet for just about any team this summer.

Dybantsa wins the matchup battle; Swain's team wins the war.

Swain drives, Dybantsa falls
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) reacts after being hit by Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

AJ Dybantsa poured in 35 PTS on 11/25 FG while hitting just 1/7 3P, grabbing 10 REB, despite dishing 1 AST to 5 TO.

Swain produced efficiently by putting up 14 PTS on 6/12 FG with 1/3 3P, grabbing 5 REB, dishing 6 AST to 1 TO, and forcing 1 STL.

A potential star at the next level, Dybantsa does things on the court few if any other prospects can do, between his downhill north-south athleticism, jumping a passing lane, flying up and down for highlight slams, pulling up for turnaround fadeaway middies and stepback threes.

One aspect of his game that knocks him a peg below Boozer, in my opinion, is his inconsistent decision making, forcing tough shots at times can hurt his team's chances and possibly team morale.

Dybantsa looks to balance his otherworldly tough shotmaking against headscratching decisions; AJ would argue he can take and make any shot, and he might not have many better options.

How frequently, how quickly, and how over-aggresive he is forcing those shots will help him develop his decisionmaking feel as his creation load increases; the difference between high end starter, all-star, and superstar in the NBA level is two-way impact and consistent, reliable decision making.

Could Dybantsa or Swain be unlocked in the Pacers high-octane offense?

Swain defends Dybantsa layup
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) shoots against Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Swain's ability to combine his all-around ball-skills, next-level ISO scoring, downhill force athleticism and off-the-dribble shooting potential creates a dual-threat floor-bender stretching the defense as a threat from deep and threat to get to the rim.

Averaging 1.32 PPP on 62 ISOs this season rates Swain in a whopping 98th percentile, via Synergy.

Scoring 1.07 PPP on Spot Ups, 1.2 PPP on Cuts, 0.9 PPP on P&R isn't too shabby, either, for Swain.

Dybantsa offers potential in two-way impact and scoring creation if he continues to develop his read-and-react decision making on the ball as a team-first creator as more reps come his way.

Overall, he's a very efficient scorer, especially as a high-volume pick-and-roll ball-handler averaging 1.0 PPP on 226 possessions, rating in the 87th percentile.

Dybantsa rates in just the 56th percentile in 122 ISOs, 0.877 PPP; however, AJ makes up for that with 1.19 PPP in 92 Post Ups, offering scoring versatility in a different one-on-one situation.

Including passes, Dybantsa rates in the 60th percentile as a P&R ball-handler, 57th percentile as an ISO creator, and 94th percentile as a Post Up hub.

For Swain's efficiency including passes, he rated in the 60th percentile as a P&R ball-handler, the 95th percentile in ISO. He only ran 12 post ups, showing he's more on the perimeter shooting or driving.

Here's two data visualizations I made scouting AJ Dybantsa in person at two annual Montverde tournaments showing signs of his two-way impact and scoring creation.

Since high school, Dybantsa has only improved as a decision maker, offensive engine, tough shotmaking scorer for his team.

Would playing with Haliburton, let alone Indiana's other playmakers, allow Dybantsa to settle into his strengths of transition play, downhill moving, shooting, scoring, play-finishing, while allowing him to develop as a playmaker at his own rate in more of an open floor setting?

Would something similar be true of Dailyn Swain in Indiana's system, adding an ISO specialist downhill scorer secondary creator who could help Indiana in the halfcourt and full court as another scoring option to throw into the wind to compete next season while providing a solid ceiling to round out as a high-end starter or potential All-Star in the right situation?

Personally, I would take Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson in any situation.

Still, Indiana landing AJ Dybantsa could possibly unlock his best attributes flying around with the rest of this Pacers core.

Dailyn Swain is another potential draft choice at 4 despite Caleb Wilson still likely holding that spot, with the only other realist hope being Swain being available at 10 in a lottery night world where Indiana ends up slipping to 10th, where Swain would be another daydream draft night outcome.

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Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He edits game film breakdowns and writes in-depth analysis on his social media platforms and the outlet Swish Theory, where he hosts the Learning Basketball podcast. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing.

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