Assessing How Much Better the Pelicans Can Really Be in 2026-27 Season

The Pelicans' franchise history and a look at other recent NBA turnarounds give some insight into how much room for improvement the Pelicans have this season.

Jan 9, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Trey Murphy III (25) celebrates with Pelicans forward Zion Williamson (1) against the Washington Wizards in the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The New Orleans Pelicans can get better this season and still miss the playoffs. That's where we have to start before training camp optimism turns into playoff expectations.

New Orleans won 26 games last season. To reach .500, it needs 41 wins, a 15-game jump. To finish with a winning record, it needs 42. And as we saw last season, even that might not be enough in the West.

What the Pelicans' history says

The franchise has finished with fewer than 30 wins five times. One was the lockout-shortened, 66-game 2011-12 season, so that comparison isn't quite apples to apples. But look at what happened after those down years: The four completed follow-up seasons produced 38, 34, 27, and 26 wins. None finished with a winning record.

That's too small a sample to give us reliable odds, but it does tell us how hard the climb to respectability can be. The best bounce-back came after 2004-05, when New Orleans went from 18 to 38 wins. That 20-game improvement remains the franchise record. It still wasn't enough to make the playoffs.

Four New Orleans teams have added at least 10 wins from one season to the next: 2005-06 (plus-20), 2007-08 (plus-17), 2014-15 (plus-11), and 2017-18 (plus-14). The last three made the playoffs.

Those teams averaged 31.3 wins before making those jumps, almost five more than this team won last season. Only two of the four improved by at least 15 games.

So when someone says the Pelicans should win 41 or 42 games, they're asking for one of the biggest turnarounds in team history.

What last season's NBA turnarounds show

That kind of jump isn't impossible. Five NBA teams added at least 10 wins last season.

San Antonio led all teams with a 28-win improvement, led by a healthy Victor Wembanyama dominating on both ends, and one of the deepest backcourts in the league.

Charlotte gained 25 victories on the strength of an elite perimeter attack sparked by rookie Kon Knueppel. The Hornets were eliminated in the play-in.

Philly leaned on Tyrese Maxey and rookie VJ Edgecombe to increase their win total by 21 games.

Detroit made a double-digit jump for the second straight season, as Cade Cunningham's MVP-level production pushed the Pistons to 16 more wins and the East's best record.

And Toronto got an All-Star season out of former Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram, riding a hot start to a 16-win surge.

Those five teams averaged 30.2 wins before the jump and 51.4 afterward. Charlotte and Philadelphia started with fewer than the Pelicans' 26 wins, so a rough season doesn't make a big recovery impossible.

Four of the five were in the East. San Antonio was the only team in the brutal West to improve by 10 or more wins. Phoenix was next at plus-nine (36 to 45), followed by Portland at plus-six (36 to 42). Utah and New Orleans each added five. The Spurs were in a class by themselves.

If the Pelicans add 10 wins, they finish 36-46. Remember, the 2021-22 team made the playoffs with that record after winning two play-in games. It can happen. But you can't plan on repeating that route.

Published preseason win projections have ranged from 27.5 to 29.5, depending on when and where you look. The Pelicans can beat those numbers. Getting all the way to 42, though, means a lot has to go right.

Zion Williamson has to perform on an All-NBA level for at least 65 games. Dejounte Murray has to prove he can still run a good basketball team. Trey Murphy has to take the next step from second option to star player. Herb Jones has to find his shooting stroke. The young players have to grow up sooner than expected. And Jamahl Mosley has to turn one of the NBA's worst defensive teams into something passable on that end.

For me, 33 to 36 wins would be real progress. 37 to 40 would be a strong season that surpasses most expectations.

Could this team finish with a winning record? Sure. But that should be the upside, not the standard we use to decide whether the Pelicans got better.

More than a winning record, the Pelicans need certainty. Certainty about their identity and their direction. If they find that this season, the wins will be there. If they don't, the record will show that as well.