NBA Playoff Picture: Updated Probabilities and Five Big Questions About Race to Postseason

The NBA’s regular season is reaching it’s waning moments. Teams across the league are jockeying for playoff positioning. Or, maybe additional ping pong balls in the draft lottery for organizations who have already punted toward the future.

For teams that hope to make some noise in the playoffs, though, now is the time to build some momentum to head into the postseason on a high note. In the stacked Western Conference, the Lakers are on a heater, hoping to assert themselves as a legitimate contender and the best of the second tier of the conference behind the Thunder and the Spurs. Speaking of Oklahoma City and San Antonio, both teams won’t stop winning. There’s still somewhat of a race for the top seed in the West, but the Thunder simply haven’t faltered enough to let the Spurs catch up.

The hottest teams in the East are trying to get out of the play-in tournament. Both the Heat and Hawks are in the midst of incredible stretches, but remain in play-in land. Only 2 1/2 games separate the fifth and ninth seeds in the East with some critical games ahead down the stretch to climb the standings and automatically qualify for the playoffs as a top-six seed.

Here’s a look at the playoff race in both the East and West as all teams now have about 15 games remaining on the regular-season schedule. Playoff probabilities are included for each team, courtesy of Basketball Reference. Plus, some of the biggest questions surrounding the playoff race.

Western Conference playoff picture

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder have won eight games in a row | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Seed	Team	Record	Games back	Playoff probability
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	53–15	---	100%
2	San Antonio Spurs	49–18	3 1/2	100%
3	Los Angeles Lakers	42–25	10 1/2	98.2%
4	Houston Rockets	41–25	11	99.7%
5	Denver Nuggets	41–27	12	99.3%
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	41–27	12	97.3%
---	PLAY-IN FIELD	---	---	---
7	Phoenix Suns	39–28	13 1/2	84%
8	Los Angeles Clippers	34–33	18 1/2	63.5%
9	Golden State Warriors	32–35	20 1/2	36.6%
10	Portland Trail Blazers	32–36	21	21.3%
---	---	---	---	---
11	Memphis Grizzlies	23–43	29	0%
12	Dallas Mavericks	23–45	30	0%
13	New Orleans Pelicans	22–46	31	0%
14	Utah Jazz	20–47	32 1/2	0%
15	Sacramento Kings	17–51	36	0%

Eastern Conference playoff picture

Cade Cunningham and the Pistons remain the top seed in the East despite a recent tough stretch | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Seed	Team	Record	Games back	Playoff probability
1	Detroit Pistons	48–19	---	100%
2	Boston Celtics	44–23	4	100%
3	New York Knicks	44–25	5	100%
4	Cleveland Cavaliers	41–27	7 1/2	100%
5	Orlando Magic	38–28	9 1/2	89.8%
6	Toronto Raptors	38–29	10	83%
---	PLAY-IN FIELD	---	---	---
7	Miami Heat	38–30	10 1/2	90.3%
8	Philadelphia 76ers	37–31	11 1/2	44.3%
9	Atlanta Hawks	36–31	12	49.8%
10	Charlotte Hornets	34–34	14 1/2	42.9%
---	---	---	---	---
11	Milwaukee Bucks	28–39	20	0.1% (of play-in/10th seed)
12	Chicago Bulls	27–40	21	0%
13	Brooklyn Nets	17–50	31	0%
14	Washington Wizards	16–50	31 1/2	0%
15	Indiana Pacers	15–53	33 1/2	0%

Five biggest questions currently impacting NBA postseason race

How much should you read into the Pistons’ recent rough stretch?

Detroit has remained at the top of the East all year and it still has a decent cushion for the conference's top seed. The Pistons are four games in front of the second-place Celtics, but Detroit has dropped five of its last eight games, only beating the Nets, Grizzlies and 76ers during that stretch. Mix in a big blown lead in the win against Brooklyn, and it’s fair to wonder whether it’s time to worry. Ausar Thompson missed five games in the stretch, which impacts Detroit’s defensive ceiling immediately. He returned Sunday in a loss to the Raptors, which makes you wonder whether the impressive Pistons will find their groove and finish the season on a high note.

Can the Lakers continue the momentum?

Los Angeles is 8–2 over its past 10 games and is currently third place in the loaded Western Conference behind the Thunder and Spurs. You could view the next four teams behind Oklahoma City and San Antonio as one big cluster: The Lakers, Rockets, Nuggets and Timberwolves are all within 1 1/2 games of each other. L.A. has been the hottest of late—LeBron James is doing Superman dives for loose balls, Luka Dončić is hitting game winners and Austin Reaves has perfected the art of the missed free throw. The Lakers will begin a tough road trip over the next 10 days, where JJ Redick’s group has a chance to prove its playoff mettle.

Will the Spurs catch the Thunder? Or will both teams keep on winning?

It looked at one point like San Antonio may be able to catch Oklahoma City for the Western Conference’s top seed. That could happen, with the Spurs 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Thunder, but OKC may make that impossible as it continues to stack wins. The two sides don’t meet again during the regular season—San Antonio took four of the five meetings including an NBA Cup win—and the Thunder are currently on an eight-game winning streak, winners of 11 of their last 12 games. The only game they dropped in that stretch was on the road in Detroit with no Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell or Isaiah Hartenstein. With 14 games left, the Thunder may not lose enough games to even let the Spurs make it interesting.

Can the Heat break into the top six in the East?

Miami’s seven-game winning streak snapped Saturday with a loss to the Magic. Thanks to the hot stretch, the Heat are within a 1/2 game of the Raptors for the six-seed and to get out of play-in purgatory. Orlando, the current No. 5 seed, is just one game in front of Miami, too. The Heat were 31–29 when the seven-game heater started and now sit at 38–30, getting hot at the perfect time. Oh, and did you hear Bam Adebayo dropped 83 points in a game?

Are the Hawks a legitimate postseason threat?

Atlanta is even hotter than Miami, winners of nine straight. The Jalen Johnson era officially begun when the Hawks dealt longtime face of the franchise Trae Young to the Wizards ahead of the trade deadline. A couple months later, the move is paying early dividends. The Hawks haven’t had the toughest schedule over their current winning streak. Over the next couple weeks, they play the Magic, Rockets, Pistons and Celtics which are huge tests for Atlanta’s playoff legitimacy this year. The Hawks are still in play-in territory, but Atlanta is only two games behind Toronto for No. 6. The last two spots in the top six of the East should be interesting with Miami, Orlando and even Charlotte on the rise as well.

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