How Low Can They Go? The Raptors' Tank Job Is About to Get Ugly

The Toronto Raptors have begun to get shameless about tanking but the road ahead isn't going to make it easy

Mar 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic looks on during the second half against the Orlando Magic at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

The Toronto Raptors aren’t hiding how they feel.

It’s no secret that the organization is determined to land a top pick in this year’s draft. The front office spoke openly earlier this season about leaving the future up to the “lottery gods.” Taken another way, it’s a ‘play-in for what?’ season for the Raptors, who have already begun—albeit with mixed results—maneuvering their way toward the bottom of the standings.

For now, Toronto is in a relatively good spot with a 20-42 record, the fifth-worst in the league. If they can hold that position, they’ll have a 42.1% chance to land a top-four pick and a 10.5% shot at securing Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 pick.

The problem? The road ahead.

Toronto has, by far, the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Over their final 20 games, they’ll face teams with a combined 29-win pace this season, including seven matchups against the three worst teams Washington, Utah, and Charlotte.

If the Raptors are willing to get shameless, this stretch could work in their favor. Dropping the majority of those games could push them further up the reverse standings. New Orleans, sitting just three games ahead of Toronto in the lottery race, has gone 5-5 in its last 10 games. Overtaking the Pelicans would improve the Raptors' lottery odds to a 48.1% chance at a top-four pick and a 12.5% shot at No. 1 overall.

But losing to equally determined tanking teams won’t be easy. The competition to be bad is intense. Utah, for example, rested four of its best players on Wednesday in a loss to Washington. Winning too many of those games could push the Raptors further down the lottery board and dangerously close to a play-in berth.

Brooklyn and Philadelphia are just one win back of Toronto in the reverse standings, and slipping below both could be costly. Dropping to seventh in the lottery order would shrink the Raptors' odds to a 31.9% chance at a top-four pick and just a 7.5% probability of landing No. 1 overall.

So now comes the real test: How far are the Raptors willing to embarrass themselves? Rotations have already gotten creative, starters are seeing their minutes slashed, and bench groups are closing out games. With the easiest schedule in the league ahead, Toronto may have to take tanking to new depths to hold its ground in the lottery race. The question isn’t whether they want a top pick. It’s how ugly they’re willing to get to make it happen.