Bucks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 12

Can the Miami Heat make history in back-to-back games?

Bam Adebayo scored 83 points – the second-most in league history – on Tuesday night in a blowout win over the Washington Wizards, and the Heat are winners of six straight heading into Thursday’s game with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks are falling further and further out of play-in contention in the East, losing to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. They’re now 5.5 games out of the No. 10 seed with just 18 games left in the regular season.

Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) back, the Bucks have struggled to play winning basketball with him in the lineup, posting an under .500 record.

Now, they’re running into a red-hot (no pun intended) Heat team that is third in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games.

Oddsmakers have the Heat favored in this matchup, and I have a player prop and a prediction for this Eastern Conference clash.

Bucks vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Bucks +6.5 (-110)
Heat -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Bucks: +210
Heat: -258

Total

234.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Bucks vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 11
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Bucks record: 27-37
Heat record: 37-29

Bucks vs. Heat Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

Alex Antetokounmpo – out
Cormac Ryan – out
Kevin Porter Jr. – questionable
Bobby Portis – questionable
Jericho Sims – questionable

Heat Injury Report

Tyler Herro – questionable
Nikola Jovic – out
Pelle Larsson – available
Norman Powell – out
Andrew Wiggins – out
Kel’el Ware – available
Jahmir Young – out

Bucks vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Simone Fontecchio OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-184)

Miami is down multiple key players on Thursday night with Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins out, which should open the door for an expanded role for Simone Fontecchio.

Now, if Herro (questionable) also sits, the Heat are going to rely heavily on Bam Adebayo and several role players against a shaky Bucks defense.

Milwaukee is just 25th in the league in defensive rating this season, and it has really struggled defending the 3-ball. The Bucks are 29th in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 28th in opponent 3-point percentage.

That’s great news for Fontecchio, who is shooting 36.2 percent from beyond the arc this season. In his last two games, he’s scored 12 and 18 points playing over 20 minutes per night. Fontecchio made three 3-pointers in each game, going 6-for-10 from beyond the arc.

In fact, he’s made two or more shots from deep in seven straight games where he’s played at least 20 minutes. I think he’s worth a look with the Heat short-handed on Thursday.

Bucks vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking the Heat in a two-team moneyline parlay. I also think Miami is worth a bet to cover at home against this struggling Bucks team:

Miami is in a great spot to win a seventh game in a row on Thursday, as the Milwaukee Bucks are in a world of trouble, falling to 3-7 in their last 10 games.

The Bucks are 5.5 games out of a play-in spot in the Eastern Conference, and it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that they’ll be able to sneak into the play-in field this season.

There are some injury concerns for the Heat tonight – Tyler Herro is questionable while Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins are out – but Miami is third in net rating, third in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating over its last 10 games.

The Heat are 22-11 at home, and they’ve improved to 13-11 against the spread as home favorites. So, I don’t mind laying the points with them against a Bucks team that has a bottom-10 defense this season.

Milwaukee is just 13-28 against teams that are .500 or better this season, and the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo has not changed their season. I love the Heat to take care of business as they pursue the No. 5 seed in the East.

Pick: Heat -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.