ESPN Metrics Project Rockets to Finish Second in Western Conference

Despite sitting outside of the West's top three seeds, Houston is projected to finish only behind the Thunder, according to ESPN metrics.

Dec 27, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) controls the ball as Cleveland Cavaliers guard Sam Merrill (5) defends during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

A rough stretch through most of December hindered the Houston Rockets a bit, but they have bounced back as 2025 comes to a close. Houston is riding a two-game winning streak heading into tonight's matchup with the 6-26 Indiana Pacers, with the chance to end the month 7-6.

The Rockets' defense was a major problem, as they ranked 23rd in such rating from Dec. 1 to Dec. 24 (117.8). However, they notched wins against the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers, holding them to 96 and 100 points, respectively. Houston has a much-improved 104.8 defensive rating from Christmas Day to now, ranking second in the NBA.

The Rockets are currently the fifth seed in a crowded Western Conference, but that doesn't tell the full story. This season, the top six spots in the West all have a case to win the championship, even against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Securing home-court advantage in the playoffs is harder than ever, even after last season's standings saw the third and eighth seeds separated by just two games.

ESPN's Basketball Power Index projects the Rockets to improve from the turn of the year, finishing 56-26. This would have them as the second seed in the West, jumping the Lakers, Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs.

"Houston is fourth in the standings, but a favorable remaining schedule (easiest among likely West playoff teams, per BPI) and a robust plus-8.8 point differential (third best in the league) mean the Rockets still finish second in 40% of simulations, more than the 35% for the Nuggets," Kevin Pelton wrote. "The Spurs (20%), currently second, are also very much in the mix."

The addition of Kevin Durant has done wonders for Houston's offense, which is why the team is projected to finish as the second-best team in the West for the second straight year.

A team that once relied almost solely on defense has become one of the better two-way units in basketball. The Rockets are averaging 120.3 points per game, ranking second in offensive rating (121.2).

But perhaps the biggest catalyst behind Houston's increased production is the rebound. Steven Adams is grabbing 8.6 boards per game, 4.4 of which are on the offensive end.

That 51.2% would break an NBA record, but Houston's current 41.3% offensive rebounding rate would also set the record for a team. No team in the play-by-play era (1996-97) has eclipsed 38%.

The Rockets have a long way to go, hitting the 30-game mark tonight against Indiana. But they're in a solid spot with room to improve, and a lot to be satisfied with.