Ranking the Rockets' Potential First-Round Matchups in the NBA Playoffs

Houston's seed is not set in stone despite clinching the NBA playoffs. Of its three possible opponents, which would be the most difficult?

Jan 1, 2026; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) dribbles up court against the Brooklyn Nets during the second half at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

After an underwhelming and inconsistent stretch of basketball through most of March, the Houston Rockets have found a rhythm, having won four in a row and punched their ticket to the NBA playoffs. After the Phoenix Suns' loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday, the Rockets clinched a top-six seed in the Western Conference, avoiding the Play-In Tournament.

Now, the focus turns toward snatching a top-four seed, which would guarantee home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason. There are three other teams in heavy competition for seeds three and four, two of which own them at the moment.

But with the No. 3 and No. 6 seeds separated by just 3.5 games, anything can happen over the next week and a half. Of the three teams Houston could face in the first round of the playoffs, which is the most dangerous?

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

Jan 29, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert (27) and guard Anthony Edwards (5) against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Timberwolves and Rockets will have a season-series decider on April 10, but Minnesota most recently routed Houston on March 25, mounting a historic 13-point comeback in overtime.

But the Timberwolves haven't been themselves over the last month. They're 6-7 over their last 13 games, mainly due to the absence of Anthony Edwards. Without its star, Minnesota is extremely underwhelming on the offensive end.

Can supplementary scorers like Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo pick up the slack if Edwards isn't 100% in the playoffs?

2. Los Angeles Lakers

Mar 16, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) and forward LeBron James (23) celebrate with teammates after a play during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Lakers would be the most difficult if Luka Dončić didn't go down with a left hamstring injury against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. If the MVP candidate is out for an extended period of time, Los Angeles is at major risk of an early playoff exit.

Dončić is set to undergo an MRI on Friday, which means speculation is running wild at the moment. Is this non-contact injury season-ending, or will it just hamper his eligibility for awards? Either way, he has been the driving force behind the Lakers having won 16 of their last 19 games.

1. Denver Nuggets

Mar 25, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) controls the ball as Dallas Mavericks guard Max Christie (00) and forward Dwight Powell (7) defend in the second quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Health has been a major topic for these Western Conference teams, but the Nuggets are the healthiest of the three at the moment. Their only major injury concern right now is Peyton Watson (hamstring), who is week-to-week.

Nikola Jokić has given the Rockets as many problems as he's given the rest of the league this season, but his sidekick, Jamal Murray, is elite against Houston. The All-Star point put up 30 or more points in two of their meetings this season, as well as a 26-point double-double in another.

Denver has a great blend of two-way basketball, but the offense is what keeps it ahead of Houston. The Rockets have struggled mightily to remain elite in that category, while the Nuggets own the NBA's top offensive rating (120.7)