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Inside The Rockets

Rockets Late-Season Guide: What to Know About Their Four Biggest Competitors

Houston is in a dogfight to secure a top-four seed in the Western Conference. Four teams are trying to get ahead of the Rockets in the playoff race.
Mar 23, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) looks on during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Mar 23, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) looks on during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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With less than 20 days until the end of the NBA regular season, the Western Conference playoff race is heating up once again. Last year, the final day of games determined the Play-In Tournament matchups, while the third and eighth seeds were separated by just two games.

As much as casual fans ignore most of the regular season, every game matters, especially for the Houston Rockets. They're 43-28, but with a 10-8 record since the All-Star break, they've dropped back to the sixth seed in the West after being as high as third.

There are four teams in competition with the Rockets to secure a top-four seed, but only two are realistically available. The Oklahoma City Thunder surpassed 50 wins long ago, while the San Antonio Spurs are eight games ahead of the third spot. Houston is desperately trying to snag home-court advantage in the postseason, but these teams are making things interesting:

Los Angeles Lakers

46-26, No. 3 Seed in West

The Rockets had their chance to grab at least one extra win and clinch the tiebreaker in the season series against the Lakers, but Los Angeles took two straight games in Houston last week.

The Lakers are on a roll, having won 12 of their last 14 games. It's hard to believe that a player averaging a near-30-point triple-double could take his game to the next level, but Luka Dončić has done just that, averaging almost 40 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.6 steals across his last 10 games.

LeBron James and Austin Reaves trade off being second options each night, while it seems that Marcus Smart and Deandre Ayton have become comfortable as role players. The offense was always there, but JJ Redick has this group playing inspired defense as of late.

Denver Nuggets

45-28, No. 4 Seed in West

The Nuggets embarrassed the Rockets the last time these two met, 129-93. To add insult to injury, Denver also holds the season series over Houston's head.

The Nuggets hit a major slump in February, going 4-7. Most of March hasn't been too kind to them either, but they've managed to win six of their last eight with clean basketball and improved defense. The league's top offense is putting up a top-10 defensive rating since March 10 while shooting the ball at a high clip with limited turnovers.

Minnesota Timberwolves

44-28, No. 5 Seed in West

The Timberwolves have been without Anthony Edwards over their last four games, but they've won three of those matchups. Minnesota's defense has been stellar as of late, allowing just 113.8 points per game since March 1.

The acquisitions of Ayo Dosunmu and Kyle Anderson, as well as cutting Mike Conley's minutes, have done wonders for the Timberwolves' perimeter game. They're shooting the ball well while being able to lock down guards on the other end.

However, Edwards' health is still a question mark in Minnesota's most pivotal stretch of the regular season.

Phoenix Suns

40-33, No. 7 Seed in West

The Rockets would need to have a major collapse of their final 11 games for the Suns to pass them up in the standings, but it's not impossible. Houston is just four games ahead of the Play-In Tournament.

Phoenix has been impressive this month, and it has been the entire season, but shooting efficiency hasn't been up to par. Since March 1, the Suns are 20th in true shooting despite having the 13th-best offensive rating.

Much of that can be attributed to Devin Booker's recent performances, averaging just 23.4 points on 39-27-84 splits over his last five games. Dillon Brooks also hasn't played since late Feb. 21, and Jalen Green is still trying to gel with this rotation, having appeared in just 25 games this season.

Still, when the Suns are healthy, they're a dangerous and underrated unit. The Rockets' worst nightmare is dropping back to the Play-In, where they'd have an extra game or two to make the playoffs.

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Jed Katz
JED KATZ

Jed is a student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison majoring in journalism. He also contributes at several other basketball outlets, including has his own basketball blog and podcast — The Sixth Man Report.