Rockets Predicted to Regress Offensively

The Houston Rockets' offense has been the talk of the league, as they've been humming on that end, which is typically their weaker facet. Defensively, they're normally tenacious, which hasn't been the case this season, although a late surge has them now ranked seventh in defensive efficiency.

Their offense is still ranked first in offensive efficiency.

But not everyone expects that to continue.

There are always skeptics.

Senior NBA writer Ricky O'Donnell is the latest culprit, although he didn't bash the team. Far from it, actually.

O'Donnell explained his calculus.

"The Rockets enter the week with the NBA’s best offense, scoring a ridiculous 126.5 points per 100 possessions, which would crush the all-time record (122.2) set by the 2024 Boston Celtics if it holds for the whole year. Scoring like that is almost certainly unsustainable for Houston, but I do think they can be one of the league’s top offenses after finishing No. 12 on that end last season."

The writer continued.

"It feels possible this really could be a top-5 offense this year given the shooting and rebounding success, and that’s a big surprise for an average offense that lost Fred VanVleet this season."

Houston's offense may regress some. That wouldn't be a shock.

Again, the fact that it's been this good thus far has been a shock.

Although adding Kevin Durant to any team will improve the offensive outputs.

It hasn't been just Durant though. Far from it.

Amen Thompson has averaged 17 points, 5.5 assists, 5.8 rebounds, and 50 percent shooting from the field in an increased offensive role. Even if he hasn't proven capable of being the team's primary facilitating point guard, he's been highly effective.

What's really helped the Rockets is their rebounding, especially on the offensive end, as it's led to extra possessions and scoring opportunities.

Houston ranks fourth overall in offensive rebounds and Steven Adams paces the league in that category, averaging five offensive boards.

Some people have noted Houston's slate of opponents and used that to downplay their early success, as they've beaten up on teams like the gimpy Boston Celtics and the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, and Memphis Grizzlies (who are not only rebuilding but also marred by the Ja Morant melodrama).

But Houston doesn't make the schedule. They can only play the opponents on the schedule.

And they've had decisive, dominant victories. In fact, they've scored at least 120 points in five of their seven games.

Again, even if they teeter off a bit offensively, they'll still be a very good offense and overall ballclub.