Rockets' Series Comeback is Tied to Lakers Outside Shooting Regression

They've been going in opposite directions.

Apr 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luke Kennard (10) smiles on the court during the final seonds of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at against the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Western Conference Quarterfinals matchup between the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers has taken a bit of swings. Heading into the matchup, the Rockets were the overwhelming favorites to walk away victorious, due to injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. 

Little did anyone know that Kevin Durant would also suffer a myriad of injuries before the action even started. The basketball gods had a different plan, it seems. They wanted a more even matchup.

Although the Rockets were already without Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Houston fell to an 0-3 hole, as they had no answer for Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart, who were red hot from 3-point range. 

It's often been said that role players make all the difference in the playoffs and the adage held true. And LeBron James remained in control of the Lakers' offensive flow, even at 41 years of age. 

Then, the Rockets turned things around. One major thing has changed the stakes of the series and allowed the Rockets to turn the tide.

Lakers Outside Shooting Has Dropped Significantly 

The Lakers were lighting it up early in the series. At least from a percentage standpoint, since they haven't been taking a ton of outside shots. 

The Lakers made 52.6 percent of their outside shots in Game 1, 46.4 percent from deep in Game 2 and 41.4 percent from deep in Game 3. In Game 4, the Lakers made just 22.7 percent of their threes, while making just 25.9 percent of their treys in Game 5. 

Part of the reason for the Lakers' outside struggles has been tied to Luke Kennard, who is one of the league's best sharpshooters. In fact, he led the league in outside shooting this season for the third time.

In Game 1, Kennard went 5-for-5 from deep, scoring 27 points. In Game 2, Kennard went 3-of-6 from deep and scored 23 points. In Game 3, Kennard went 1-of-6 from deep, scoring 14 points.

In Game 4, Kennard went 0-for-3 from deep, scoring just 7 points. The Rockets held him to just one point on 0-for-2 from outside.

The Rockets have made defensive adjustments on Kennard, which has limited his effectiveness as the series has progressed.

Houston's outside shooting has picked up, while the Lakers' outside shooting has started to slip. In Game 5, the Rockets made 14 triples, while attempting 40 (a 35 percent clip), the latter of which has been an issue for the team all season.

In Game 4, the Rockets made 40 percent of their treys (on 12-of-30). If the Rockets can continue to win the long-range shooting battle, they can extend the series at least another game.