Hawks-Suns Betting Picks, Trends to Know
PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns and Atlanta Hawks are set for a Friday night battle as both look to improve their playoff positioning.
Data-driven props, bets and trends to know for tonight:
Pick of the Game: Suns 3Q -1 (1 Unit)
via KillerSports.com
Phoenix heads to Atlanta tonight for what should be a high-scoring, up-and-down game with a projected total of nearly 250 points.
This season, Hawks' home games see an average of 247 total points with 122 points coming from the home team. However, Atlanta is a concerning 5-18 ATS in home games and 1-5 ATS as home underdogs.
A major concern for Atlanta is the third-quarter scoring margin they've seen at State Farm Arena. They are 27th in the NBA in scoring margin coming out of the half in all games (-3.0 points) and are 29th at home (-3.8 points).
When the Hawks are hosting the contest in which both teams have at least one day of rest, they are 2-13 against the number. In the third quarter of these games, they are losing the quarter by 4.3 points and as home underdogs, it increases to 8.3 points!
The Suns, on the other hand, are one of the better third-quarter teams in the league. They are third overall at +3.0 scoring margin and fourth on the road at +1.7 points.
As away favorites with a game total of 233 or more, Phoenix is winning the third quarter by 5.1 points. When both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant play, it goes up to nearly a six-point margin (5.8).
Since the beginning of January, the Suns have won the quarter in 13 of 16 games with an average margin of 7.8 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost eight of 12 quarters by an average of 6.3 points.
Picks: Suns 3Q -1 (DraftKings -105), Suns 3Q -0.5 (FanDuel -118)
Other Trends/Notes:
- Suns are 9-1 SU as away favorites with a total of 233+
- Phoenix is 17-4 SU as favorites when playing a team they previously lost against (12-8 ATS)
- The over is 9-3 when the Suns were previously away favorites and recorded 26+ team assists (10-2 SU)
- The over is 17-4 after the Suns win by 11+ points as favorites (15-6 SU)
- Since 2022, Atlanta is 1-8 SU and ATS at Home as non-favorites when Trae Young plays
- Hawks are 11-31 ATS at home with Trae Young as a favorite of -7 or less or as an underdog
Player Prop: Kevin Durant OVER 4.5 Assists + Clint Capela OVER 7.5 Rebounds (.5 Unit)
Over the last six games, the leading passer for the Suns has been Kevin Durant. With 9.5 potential assists per game, Durant has averaged nearly seven assists.
Per 100 possessions, Atlanta allows the fifth-most assists and with a game total of 249, there should be lots of scoring and potential assists for Durant.
Clint Capela against Jusuf Nurkic has been a bright spot for the Hawks' center. The two big men have matched up seven times since the 2018 season and Capela has managed 11.1 rebounds on average.
Capela may not gather his normal amount of defensive rebounds due to pace and the typical high shooting percentage of the Suns, but he should be able to clean the glass on the offensive side.
ESPNBet (-107), FanDuel (-130)
