Data-Driven Betting Picks for Suns-Bucks
PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns play host to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight in a highly anticipated matchup with stars expected to litter the court.
Picks of the game using analytics + data to help:
Bet of the Game: Suns -4 (1 Unit)
via KillerSports.com
The Suns come home after securing a winning road trip in Washington to host the Bucks, who are looking to put a bow on the end of their own road trip.
On Sunday night, the Bucks were dismantled in the fourth quarter in Salt Lake City 40-13, ultimately losing to the Jazz by 15 as small underdogs. Now, Milwaukee travels to Phoenix as 3.5 to 4-point underdogs in search of bouncing back.
However, since 2019, when the Bucks are an underdog for a second straight game, they are 0-17 against the spread and straight up. They are failing to cover by a whopping 12.5 points.
Phoenix, on the other hand, is coming off a 28-point victory against the Wizards as large favorites. Typically, this isn't a good spot for the Suns being home favorites with a high total, but their offense has been firing on all cylinders as of late.
Over the last four games, the Suns' offensive rating is 128.9 and we've seen them post a rating of 121 or higher in seven of their last eight. For reference, the league-high rating is 121.3 and league average is 115.6. The rim is the size of the ocean.
Milwaukee has not done themselves any favors defensively this season, either. After posting a 111.9 defensive rating last season (third-best), it has fallen to 117.2 (12th-worst).
An alternative to the spread may be taking the Suns' team total which is hanging at 123.5 (-110) as they do struggle to cover against teams that play with a high pace.
BetMGM -3.5 (-115), FanDuel -4 (-106)
Player Prop: Devin Booker OVER 23.5 Points + Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 8.5 Rebounds (.5 Unit)
Similarly to the 2021 NBA Finals, these teams have no guys to stop these dudes defensively. After trading away Jrue Holiday, the Bucks no longer have a defensive stopper at the guard position.
Devin Booker is the only member of the Suns remaining from that miraculous run to the NBA Finals. One thing we do know about Booker is that he does get up for important matchups or days, such as the anniversary of Kobe's death or the monthly skirmish with Luka Doncic.
This game means the most to him and after a few subpar games for Booker's standards, we could see a 30+ point performance.
In the 17 games the Bucks have failed to cover as back-to-back dogs, Giannis has played in 10 of them. In those 10 games, he's averaged 10.8 rebounds and had nine or more in eight of them.
While the Suns may make their shots more than they miss, the energy and size Giannis provides can help him clear the glass throughout the game.
ESPNBET (-109)
