The Warriors’ Fading Dynasty Is Running Out of Time

Golden State is idling in the Western Conference play-in mix, and erosion across the roster has left little margin for error.

Warriors guard Stephen Curry and head coach Steve Kerr react in the second half against the Clippers. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

On Monday, shortly after the L.A. Clippers’ narrow 103–102 win over Golden State, the Warriors’ interview room had an unlikely visitor. Terry Stotts, Golden State’s lead assistant, had taken over the coaching duties midway through the fourth quarter, after head coach Steve Kerr was ejected for arguing a blown goaltending call. Those duties extended to postgame media duties. “I’m up here,” said Stotts, “because I’m saving Steve some money.”

Indeed, Kerr probably saved a couple of bucks not verbally tattooing a fairly hapless officiating crew—swallowing the whistle after John Collins swatted Gary Payton II’s layup after it hit the backboard was far from the trio’s only offense. More frustrating though was that Golden State isn’t leaving Los Angeles with a needed win. 

These are frustrating times in the Bay. Monday’s loss dropped the Warriors to 19–18 on the season, a perfectly mediocre record that has Golden State firmly entrenched in the eighth spot in the Western Conference. The offense, as it has been all season, was below average (38% from the floor, 24% from three) while an above average defense did enough to keep the Warriors in the game. It was a one-point game on the final possession, when a Jimmy Butler jumper missed to end it. 

“I thought we played well,” Draymond Green said. “We couldn’t hit shots.” 

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Before we dig into the issues, it should be noted that the Warriors aren’t bad. Stephen Curry is still playing at an All-NBA level (shooting close to 40% from three), Butler is still a reliable 20-ish points per game scorer and there are enough wing defenders on the roster to cause many teams problems. If Golden State was in the East, it would be a middle-of-the-pack playoff team. In the West, even with a road-heavy early schedule, the Warriors are in the play-in mix—with eight straight home games coming up. 

Still, there is an undeniable sense that this team doesn’t have enough. Optimism that Golden State could pick up where it left off from the 23–8 run it went on after Butler was acquired last season has faded. Green, the heartbeat of this team for so many years, has regressed. Jonathan Kuminga’s days appear to be numbered. In recent weeks, Kerr has spoken of the team nostalgically, calling the Warriors “a fading dynasty” while saying that it is unrealistic to expect the team to compete with rising powers like Oklahoma City and San Antonio in the years ahead. 

Blunt—and, frankly, unusual—words from a coach, but accurate. Erosion on the roster is everywhere. Green can still have impact as an offensive hub and on-ball defender, but his perimeter shooting is a liability and appears more suited to a role as a small-ball five than power forward. Al Horford was supposed to fortify the frontcourt but age and injuries have limited Horford, whose shooting percentage (36.6%) has cratered. Butler has been solid—the 40.3% from three is an eye-catching statistic—but he’s attempting only 11.8 shots per game. 

Meanwhile the young players there to supplement them have not been consistent. Moses Moody is shooting a career-low 40.5%. Brandin Podziemski has leveled off. Quinten Post’s shooting numbers have tumbled. 

Then there is Kuminga. A fast start to the season offered hope that Kuminga could rediscover a role in the Warriors’ rotation. But Kuminga’s playing time has declined every month. He played just four games in December. He’s appeared to have lost the trust of Kerr and vice versa. Kuminga is eligible to be traded on Jan. 15, and many league officials believe it certain he won’t be on the Golden State roster after the Feb. 5 trade deadline. 

Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga is eligible to be trade on Jan. 15. / John Hefti-Imagn Images

Will it matter? The Warriors were revived when the team acquired Butler before last year’s deadline. But Butler was a veteran, championship-caliber player eager to play in this type of situation. Those players are not readily available. Kuminga still has value, with some rival executives believing a change of scenery will bring out the dynamic, two-way forward he has shown flashes of. But even the teams interested—Sacramento, New Orleans—are not willing to overpay to get him.  

Which leaves the Warriors … here. Golden State didn’t leave Los Angeles discouraged on Monday. “I think the blueprint [to win] is right there,” Green said. “Defend, take care of the ball and give yourself a chance.” Said Curry, “I think our process has been really good on both ends of the floor.” In this upcoming eight-game homestand, the Knicks are the only top-three-seeded team on the schedule. 

“We just got to lock in and want to do it on a nightly basis,” Payton said. “[If] we can continue to do this for 48 minutes each day, we’ll put ourselves in the best position to come out with the games late.” 

Perhaps. The Warriors are still capable of flashes of brilliance. Curry remains one of the NBA’s premier shotmakers. Green is a strong frontcourt playmaker who can dial it up for big defensive stops. Butler has a history of leveling up in the postseason. If it can find some consistency, Golden State can climb the standings. If not, this fading dynasty will move one step closer to fading away.

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