Rotational Ripple: Rookie Minutes to Rise Throughout the Season
The Oklahoma City Thunder are due for a rotational ripple.
With the Thunder onboarding four rookies, including three Top 12 selections, the organization is due for a shuffled deck in the rotation. After the waiving of forward Isaiah Roby in July, the franchise holds a standard roster of 18, three spots above the league maximum. Upon the franchise’s duo of two-way signings and pair of Exhibit-10 additions, they currently hold a roster of 22 – exceeding the training camp maximum of 20.
In preparation for the 2022-23 season, roster turnover is a given for the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, their roster is expected to be fluid throughout the regular season.
Throughout the week on Inside The Thunder, I have broken what I believe will be the Thunder’s day-one rotation. With all 240 minutes allocated, Oklahoma City’s day-one rotation will be a polar opposite to that of their closing segments.
For reference, of the Thunder’s entire day-one rotations the previous two seasons, only three played in their regular-season closers. In the 2020-21 season, Aleksej Pokusevski played nearly 11 minutes in the season opener and recorded a career-best 29 points in a 41-minute closer. Last season, Isaiah Roby and Vit Krejci netted a combined 17 minutes in the Thunder’s season opener and logged 18 and 40 minutes, respectively, in the season closer.
Clearly, a large change is due comparing game 1 to game 82. However, change comes often in organizations on a night-to-night basis and with injuries and cold spells taken into consideration – plenty of players will earn their shot – in particular, the rookies.
Here’s my assessment of the Thunder rookies’ minute projections throughout the season:
Initial Breakdown
The Oklahoma City Thunder dipped big into the rookie pool this offseason acquiring Chet Holmgren and No. 2, trading up for Ousmane Dieng at No. 11, selecting Jalen Williams at No. 12, and capping the draft with Jaylin Williams at No. 34.
In my first assessment of the day-one rotation, I had Holmgren perched at the starting five with 28 minutes and Jalen Williams fresh off the bench for 20 minutes.
By the end of the season, all four players should be netting playing time.
Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA TODAY Sports
82-Game Outlook:
In the case of Chet Holmgren, his floor for a minute push is much lower than other rookies based on the fact he already has the foot in the door. As one of the nation’s most dominant rim protectors and pick-and-pop specialists, he’s the peanut butter to the jelly that is the Thunder’s backcourt. If he’s able to shed off fatigue, he’ll be netting efforts well over 30 minutes, however, it shouldn’t sway significantly barring injury.
2022-23 Minute Projection: 29.2 Minutes
Jalen Williams’ Summer League campaign was nothing short of spectacular. With high-level plays scoring on and off the basketball, he’s stamped his value offensively and cemented it with his defense. As a 6-foot-6 wing, Williams adds value playing the two-or-three, but his sneaky ball-handling skills made him a Swiss-Army Knife. By December, I’d imagine Williams is in the ballpark range of 22-23 minutes, but if injuries and a potential playoff fallout occurs – logging minutes into the upper 20s to low 30s is realistic.
2022-23 Minute Projection: 24.4 Minutes
Ousmane Dieng is a unique talent. At 6-foot-10, his on-ball skills are bar none compared to most players and his defense has looked phenomenal. Growing pains look to be part of the program as his wavering three-ball showed in the Summer League and last season in the NBL. After ping-ponging between the Thunder and Blue in November in December, Dieng is a player who I’d envision holds rotation minutes in the next calendar year and should only continue to increase in playing time upon the closing portions of the season.
I’d compare Dieng’s year-one trajectory to that of Aleksej Pokusevski. Briefly play a game or two with the Thunder, take a month-long stint in the G League to hone in skills, and slowly but surely slip into the rotation. The Thunder have shown the tendency to rest older members of the roster. With an older player currently ahead of him in the depth chart in Kenrich Williams, it’s easy to envision Dieng would absorb his minutes alongside others to close the year.
Based on taking into account large minute and appearance fluctuations, it’s difficult to gauge Dieng’s pinpoint minute projection as a mixed bag of sub-10-minute games and 30-plus games are bound to occur next season. For a general estimate, I’d imagine he'll average more than 25 minutes per game after the All-Star game.
2022-23 Minutes Projection: 19.4 Minutes
Jaylin Williams’ current roster situation has him out of play entirely, but that should change as the season progresses. Similar to Dieng, an approach where Williams plays all 15 Winter Showcase games for the Blue would mutually benefit all parties as he can hone in on his pick-and-pop game while the Thunder get to see him more in 5-on-5 action. Williams’ ticket to minutes also comes later into the season when Mike Muscala is likely to move into a more backseat role as he has in the previous two years. If that is the case, I still think 20-minute games will need to be earned as the Thunder’s frontcourt is not permeating with young talent awaiting chances.
2022-23 Minutes Projection: 15.1 Minutes
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