Should OKC Thunder Be Worried About Playoff Shooting Struggles?

Oklahoma City completed a first-round sweep, but it still needs to find its outside shooting touch.

On Saturday, the Thunder held on to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 117-115 to earn a 4-0 series win and advance to the second round. Considering the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets are now deadlocked at two games apiece, the Thunder will have plenty of time to get up some more shots after a rough shooting series.

While the Thunder didn’t shoot well throughout their four matchups against the Grizzlies, Game 4 was their worst outing. In the clinching game, the Thunder shot only 7-of-35 from beyond the arc, with their 20% clip from deep tying their second-worst performance of the season, and their seven makes tying their fewest makes.

The Thunder’s best outside shooting performance came in Game 1, with the team shooting only 35.1%. The series against Memphis marked the Thunder’s first four-game stretch shooting 36% or worse from 3-point range since December.

Although the Thunder’s numbers are rather concerning on the surface, there is no reason to overreact to the team’s poor shooting. In fact, it might be an encouraging sign for the Thunder moving forward.

Oklahoma City finished the regular season shooting 37.4% from beyond the arc, good for sixth in the league. Pairing that with the Thunder’s increased shooting volume compared to last season and a more characteristic shooting performance for this team could make them nearly unbeatable.

The Thunder have already found ways to win when their shots aren’t falling at the usual rate in the postseason. Assuming they can maintain this level of defensive intensity and continue generating good looks, a simple regression to the mean is all the Thunder need.

Despite the overall poor numbers from deep, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren all hit critical threes in the closing minutes of Games 3 and 4. Among other things, that shows the Thunder haven’t lost any confidence in their outside shooting.

If the Thunder can keep getting good shots from outside, they should fall at some point in the playoffs. Even if they don’t fall every night, the Thunder aren’t necessarily reliant on their 3-point shot to win games.

Hitting threes will absolutely be important to Oklahoma City’s championship hopes, but isolated bad shooting performances are unlikely to kill the Thunder’s playoff run.