Missing Out on Top Seed Could be Beneficial for OKC Thunder

The Thunder are fighting for playoff seeding, but losing the first seed wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

Dec 16, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) defends Denver / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

As teams race for playoff positioning in the final weeks of the regular season, it’s important to remember a better seed doesn’t always mean an easier playoff run.

That is exactly the position the Oklahoma City Thunder are in. In a three-team race with the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves at the top of the Western Conference, it might be in the Thunder’s best interest to finish second.

Of course, that would mean missing out on hanging a banner in Paycom Center with the first Northwest Division title since 2016. However, it could increase the chances of the team’s first Western Conference title banner since 2012.

The playoffs are entirely about matchups, meaning for the Thunder to advance as far as possible, they need to find favorable matchups along the way. Missing out on the top seed in the West could mean losing home-court advantage after the first round, but it could also mean an easier first round.

In the gauntlet of the West, there is no such thing as an easy playoff series, but Oklahoma City’s least favorable matchup would be the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers won the season series against the Thunder 3-1 and are unlikely to get out of the 9-10 play-in game.

The Lakers are the only team the Thunder have lost a season series to so far, and their size has caused significant problems. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have also proven they can make deep playoff runs regardless of seeding, knocking off the young Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of their Western Conference Finals run last season.

Ideally, if the Thunder do not get the first seed, the Nuggets finish at the top to potentially set up a second-round series against the Timberwolves. Along with avoiding the Lakers in the first round, avoiding the defending champions until the conference finals should be the next highest priority.

Although finishing first might set up a second-round series against a worse opponent, it could also set up a matchup against a much more experienced team. If the current 4-seeded LA Clippers stay there and advance to the second round, Oklahoma City would have to face some of the longest-tenured stars in the league.

The Thunder’s roster has 134 combined games of playoff experience, but that number drops to only 59 without Mike Muscala and Bismack Biyombo, who have seen little playing time. Five of the Clippers' top six scorers have more playoff experience than that, including four stars with more than 100 playoff games.

The Thunder’s youth has not deterred them from posting a 50-win season, but only time will tell if that will translate to the playoffs. Still, creating the most favorable path for a deep run will require some luck.

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