OKC Thunder Second Year Guard Will be NBA Playoff X-Factor

It is crowded in the Oklahoma City Thunder rotation. In staff meetings, every so often, head coach Mark Daigneault needs to put a decision to a vote, given their bevy of options, which will likely last longer as the NBA Playoffs loom.

While a good problem to have, some tough decisions on minute allotment will need to be made. The good news for the Thunder is that they have a modern-day bench boss who doesn't buy into the old adage of "use eight, rotate seven, play six and trust five," a staple used in the postseason by NBA teams since legendary head coach Pat Riley coined the phrase in the 1990s.

Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault routinely plays 11 and at times 12 players, expanding his rotation from opening night all the way through the team's 2025 NBA title run.

“I didn’t think there was a guy in the game that was like red alarm. I understand there’s norms but we want to expose ourselves to being the best team we can be. We’re willing to do things a little differently," Daigneault said after being quizzed on his substitution patterns during the 2024 playoffs.

That statement held true through Daigneault's entire postseason career to this point, for good reason. The Thunder have always fostered a deep rotation since breaking into the NBA playoffs back in 2024, and last season proved that you never know who will need to step up. While backup big man Jaylin Williams had a limited role against the Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Indiana Pacers, the Arkansas product was instrumental in getting the Thunder over the hump in a seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets.

“There’s advantages to having depth… There’s probably like a subtle pressure to cut it down arbitrarily, but they all played well last night… You never know what a series is gonna deal you in terms of the hand you have to play. If we [played] 8 guys last night, and we had to pivot to 1 of the other 3/4 that didn't play. Now you're like dusting them off. They haven't gotten in a game yet. They haven't touched the floor yet. They haven't gotten a taste yet. And now you're going to them and it's somewhat reactive," Daigneault continued.

Perhaps on a given night of the ten-plus guys who grace the hardwood, only eight see heavy minutes, but Daigneault has never truly trimmed his rotation for the duration of a playoff series. It worked to the tune of five playoff series wins over the last two seasons under Daigneault, including an NBA Championship.

The expectation is for that to hold firm come April as the Thunder attempt to be the first team to repeat as champions since the 2018 Golden State Warriors.

An X Factor in this year's playoff run for the Oklahoma City Thunder will be second-year guard Ajay Mitchell.

A year ago, he logged just 84 minutes, getting 10-plus minutes in just four games. Three of which were lopsided wins. It was hard for Mitchell to make an impact in the playoffs a year ago, suffering a turf toe injury that sidelined him from Jan. 5 through April 9 before getting back on the court for the final two games of his rookie season.

This year, Mitchell has already logged a career high 44 games and counting. His production has leaped in the process, averaging 14.3 points, 3.6 assists and 1.7 stocks (steals plus blocks) while shooting 49% from the floor, 34% from beyond the arc and 87% at the charity stripe.

Mitchell has vastly improved on the defensive end of the floor, where he is generating 1.4 steals, 2.6 deflections, and allowing under a point per possession in pick-and-roll defense of ball handlers, ranking in the 94th percentile. Even in isolation, matchups are shooting just 3-for-21 against the second-year guard.

it is on the offensive end of the floor that Mitchell can completely change the Thunder's already championship-level outlook.

A year ago, the Thunder at times stalled in the half-court offense. Especially in the sparring minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor. Mitchell gives this team a new dynamic on that front. This season, the UC Santa Barbara product is posting over a point per possession in the half-court with the ability to take the pressure off Oklahoma City in more ways than one.

Mitchell can lead an offense as a table setter. His ability to bring the ball up the floor allows for Gilgeous-Alexander and/or Williams to already be down the floor and in a spot to attack defenses without being harrassed for 94 feet while also making it more challenging for team's to blitz off screens, trap, or send help to the Thunder's one-two scoring punch if they are playing away from the ball.

In the pick-and-roll, Mitchell is operating at a high-level, turning in nearly a point per possession in that setting. He is an automatic paint touch, which makes him dangerous. No matter if he elects to hit the paint for a pull-up mid-range jumper where he is shooting 49%, or stop shy for a floater that he hits 53% clip, or barrel his way to the cup where he finishes around the rim at a 68% rate while also being top four in free throw rate on this roster, he is a threat. If defenses attempt to gap him as a driver or send over bodies to collapse the paint, the second-year guard has a knack for spraying the ball out to the open man.

Mitchell makes the Thunder even tougher to defend.

When just Gilgeous-Alexander is on the floor, the Thunder offense produces 122.5 points per possession per 100 possessions. When the superstar shares the floor with Mitchell, that mark jumps to 129.5 points per possession. The team's net rating jumps by 7.6 points according to Cleaning the Glass. If Williams is added into the mix, that number stays at 128.8 points per 100 possessions.

It is evident when evaluating Mitchell that not only can he take pressure off of the Thunder's top two scorers on the ball, but he is a great secondary creator beside them. Not only can he finish plays as a catch-and-shoot option, but once a defense slants to take away Gilgeous-Alexander or Williams, Mitchell can get it done off the bounce as well. His off-the-dribble jumpers have been deadly in that setting; he is shooting 48% from the floor. A mark that ranks in the 90th percentile.

He can play off the catch to not only create his own shot but keep the defense in scramble mode with his playmaking chops and let the ball re-find the likes of Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams in a better spot to score.

Whenever Williams returns from injury, Oklahoma City should be looking to make him as comfortable as possible. They may even need to scale his offensive responsibility down a tick to keep him fresh on both ends as he works his way back. Mitchell can keep the Santa Clara product in a familiar off-ball role that he plays alongside Gilgeous-Alexander for the bulk of games. At the very least, even if Williams is ready to carry a massive load offensively, Mitchell gives him another helping hand to not feel as though it is all on the All-NBA swingman, as the team's secondary offense largely was a year ago.

This isn't to mention all he does for Chet Holmgren. The Thunder's All-Star big man had an offensive breakout earlier this season in large part thanks to his play-finishing. Holmgren is shooting 38% on catch-and-shoot looks and over 40% on unguarded catch-and-shoot chances, which Mitchell will set him up for plenty.

With Holmgren cutting to the rim more than ever, as well as being more comfortable as a roll man out of the pick-and-roll and hanging out around the dunker spot awaiting his drive-heavy guard rotation to get downhill, these are easy buckets that Mitchell can create for the Gonzaga product to keep the scoreboard moving in the right direction.

Mitchell can overhaul and already championship-quality offense to improve the team on the margins enough to help them navigate the difficult task of going back-to-back.