Using Four Factors to Explain 2024-25 OKC Thunder Dominance, Part Four: Free Throws

Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder displayed a strong effective field goal percentage differential, a historic turnover differential and a negative offensive rebound differential.

The last of Dean Oliver's four factors is the most controversial. Free throws are the most efficient shots in basketball, so drawing more and/or conceding fewer leads to better results. The 2024-25 regular season's cumulative rim percentage was 66.3%, or 1.33 points per shot, and its cumulative free throw percentage was 78.0%, or 1.56 points per two attempts.

Free-throw rate combines an offensive team or player's frequency and efficiency. The formula: free throws made / free throws attempted.

Team Performance, 2024-25 Regular Season

The Thunder registered a lower free-throw rate than it allowed for the third straight regular season.

Comparing team free throw rate and opponent free throw rate during the 2024-25 NBA regular season. | NBA.com

The regular-season Thunder accumulated a 0.220 free-throw rate (No. 28 in NBA) and gave up a 0.272 free-throw rate (No. 26 in NBA). This was the NBA's second-worst differential (-5.2%) behind the Toronto Raptors (-5.4%).

However, this factor has a much weaker correlation to winning than shooting and turnovers.

The Boston Celtics, which posted the worst free-throw rate (0.212), won 61 games through the third-best effective field goal percentage differential (+3.9%). The Orlando Magic, which allowed the worst free-throw rate (0.287), made the playoffs because of the second-best turnover differential (+2.1%).

The San Antonio Spurs (+3.4% free-throw rate differential) and Dallas Mavericks (+3.3%) were lottery teams with top-five differentials. The Thunder and Detroit Pistons (-2.8%) were playoff teams with bottom-five differentials.

Team Performance, 2025 Playoffs

Oklahoma City's greatest regular-season weakness became average throughout the 2025 postseason.

Comparing team free throw rate and opponent free throw rate during the 2025 NBA playoffs. | NBA.com

The playoff Thunder tallied a 0.290 free-throw rate (No. 6 in NBA) and conceded a 0.288 free-throw rate (No. 12 in NBA), improving significantly in the former category by playing its best players more minutes. Oklahoma City averaged the fourth-most free throw attempts (26.0) and the fourth-highest percentage (80.1%).

The Houston Rockets (+14.6% differential), Pistons (+7.1% differential) and Milwaukee Bucks (+2.8%) lost in the first round with top-five differentials.

The Golden State Warriors (-6.3%) and Indiana Pacers (-4.5%) advanced to at least the second round with bottom-five differentials. Indiana won three rounds while allowing the highest free-throw rate (0.337).

OKC Player Performance, 2024-25 Regular Season

Last regular season, the Thunder's free-throw distribution centered on two players.

Comparing current Oklahoma City Thunder players' free throw rates and free throw percentages during the 2024-25 NBA regular season. Dot size correlates positively with total made free throws. | Basketball Reference

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (601) and Jalen Williams (236) knocked down 61.1% of Oklahoma City's 1,369 free throws.

Gilgeous-Alexander led the 14 returning Thunder players in free-throw makes (601), attempts (669), percentage (89.8%) and rate (0.404). He led the NBA in regular-season makes for the third straight year, coinciding directly with his significant percentage increase.

The rest of the rotation did not gain many free-throw attempts, but they made them count. Twelve returners shot at least 70%, 10 shot at least 75% and six shot at least 80% from the stripe. The Thunder shot 81.9% as a team (No. 1 in NBA).

OKC Player Performance, 2025 Playoffs

The playoff Thunder drew more free throws as contact became stricter. After all, NBA teams committed more fouls per 100 possessions in the playoffs than regular season for the 43rd straight year.

Comparing current Oklahoma City Thunder players' free throw rates and free throw percentages (min. 100 minutes) during the 2025 NBA playoffs. Dot size correlates positively with total made free throws. | Basketball Reference

Gilgeous-Alexander (0.431) and Williams (0.323) saw their free-throw rates skyrocket, and Chet Holmgren (0.365) became an extremely positive influence after missing so much previous action.

The 2024-25 regular-season Thunder excelled at two-way shooting and two-way turnovers for the second straight year. It improved both areas and two-way rebounding, jumping by 11 wins and a +5.4 net rating despite experiencing worse injury luck.

OKC Statistic, 2024-25 Regular Season	Opponent Statistic, 2024-25 Regular Season	OKC Differential
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 56.0%	Effective Field Goal Percentage: 51.3%	+4.7%
Turnover Percentage: 11.6%	Turnover Percentage: 16.9%	+5.3%
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 28.1%	Offensive Rebound Percentage: 29.6%	-1.5%
Free Throw Rate: 0.220	Free Throw Rate: 0.272	-5.2%
Points Per Game: 120.5	Points Per Game: 107.6	+12.9

The 2024-25 playoff Thunder rode its all-time turnover differential to the championship. Its shot defense and average free-throw differential offset poor offensive efficiency and defensive rebounding.

OKC Statistic, 2025 Playoffs	Opponent Statistic, 2025 Playoffs	OKC Differential
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 52.2%	Effective Field Goal Percentage: 50.7%	+1.5%
Turnover Percentage: 12.3%	Turnover Percentage: 17.9%	+5.6%
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 29.2%	Offensive Rebound Percentage: 32.4%	-3.2%
Free Throw Rate: 0.290	Free Throw Rate: 0.288	+0.2%
Points Per Game: 114.7	Points Per Game: 106.4	+8.3

Oklahoma City has mastered the regular season and played well enough in the postseason, but the defending champion still has room for improvement.

Playoff Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren were all inefficient from the field as top-three scoring options. The Thunder struggled to rebound consistently without its double-big lineup, even though it dominated other factors. Oklahoma City's role players do not get to the line.

Time will tell where the Thunder excels this season.

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