Chet Holmgren Set For Scoring Leap in Year Four

OKC Thunder all-star center Chet Holmgren can cross the 20-point-per-game threshold in 2026-27.

Apr 27, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (7) against the Phoenix Suns in the second half during game four of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren has improved each season he's played in the league, throughout all his injury troubles. Holmgren made his first All-Star Game in 2026, but another leap is on the way for the former No. 2 overall selection.

Defense has been the calling card for the 7-foot-1 center, with his offense having plenty of room to grow. After yet another fully healthy offseason full of work, Holmgren could be in the grounds for his first 20-point-per-game season in the NBA.

Holmgren has averaged 16.5 points per game throughout his three-year career to this point, averaging his highest total of 17.1 last season, alongside his Defensive Player of the Year-caliber defense, to earn All-NBA honors for the first time. He hit another level in the playoffs, averaging 18.3 points per game through the first eight games of the run before struggling greatly in the Western Conference Finals, a growing experience for the still-young player.

"You also have to look at everything, understand where you've improved, understand where you still need to improve, and then kind of look at everything objectively and continue to put your head down and continue to work from there," Holmgren said in his end-of-season media availability.

Holmgren was in a sea of criticism after he scored just four points in the Thunder's winner-take-all Game 7 at home to reach a second consecutive NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs, struggling under heavy pressure, attempting just two shots in 33 minutes. He'll have to play against those same Spurs again in his first game of the new season, traveling to the hostile environment on Opening Night.

It's easy to believe that another leap is in the cards with just slightly more offensive aggression from Holmgren. He's a typically efficient player in his career, with splits of 53.4/36.8/78.5, but he's tended to have quiet, less aggressive nights throughout long years.

Additionally, Holmgren is a talent 3-point shooter who has decreased the amount of perimeter attempts he's taken each of his first three seasons in the league. With a higher willingness to shoot outside looks, more scoring will follow. With a more spaced-out starting lineup expected in 2026, plenty of open opportunities will follow for the Gonzaga product.

"I feel like there were definitely opportunities to get more attempts up that I didn't in the moment, and that's an area to improve," Holmgren said on his 2.8 3-point attempts per game during the 2026 Western Conference Finals.

Holmgren has improved each of his three seasons in the NBA offensively; all he needs is more shooting aggression to make the leap to become a 20-point-per-game scorer.