How NBA Draft Lottery Reform Benefits OKC Thunder

Tanking was one of the biggest talking points in the NBA this season. That is par for the course. In the current NBA ecosystem negativity sells and it is rare for anyone to harp on the positive things about the league. Instead, bringing out the pitch folks ignites the mob, driving traffic, engagement and thus revenue for the parties that be.

The 2026 NBA Draft is loaded with talent, three players sit atop the class that in 2027 would be the sure-fire undisputed No. 1 overall pick. The same can be said for Caleb Wilson and arguably a few other names at the top of next week's draft. It wasn't surprising to see teams at a crossroads on the lookout for a franchise-changing star do whatever it takes to free-fall to the bottom of the NBA standings in hopes of being rewarded with one of the pillars of this crop of prospects.

Utah, among others, were at the top of the criticism for tanking this season. The Jazz went as far as to pull players in the final frames of winnable games to ensure a loss. That felt different than a more organic way of tanking, just building a team so bad there are no other options.

It led to the NBA deciding to shake up the NBA Draft Lottery, going to a new 3-2-1 format. The three worst records in the NBA only have two lottery balls, the non play-in teams have three lottery balls each, the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds have two lottery balls while the losters of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 seed game will have a lottery ball each.

This is good news for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not because the title favorites for next season are expected to be in this range but due to the outstanding draft assets owed to the Bricktown Ballers.

The Thunder own the Denver Nuggets 2027 NBA Draft pick (top 5), the L.A. Clippers pick swap in 2027 and the San Antonio Spurs first round pick in 2027 (top15 protected) and the Dallas Mavericks 2028 unprotected first round pick. While none of these clubs are expected to be bottom feeds and the Spurs have no chance to be bit by the new lottery reform, the Mavericks 2028 selection and Clippers 2027 pick create more value under these new rules.

Both clubs will be projected in the sweet spot of having the maximium amount of lottery balls and risk giving Oklahoma City a top pick in the 2027 Draft (via Clippers) and 2028 Draft (via Mavericks).

"I think it's a tremendously difficult position for Adam [Silver] to be the commissioner of the league and have that be such a significant narrative when we're having such an incredible regular season during the year. I understand there's a tension, bottom line, between how you can get the teams that need the help the best available players because, no matter how you slice it, 20 to 25 of the 30 teams rely on the draft to build a sustainable team because it's not just access to the players, but it's also the ability to retain the players in a lot of places that's very hard to do. That's very hard to do," Presti said. "So his feeling -- and I support him 100 percent -- is that the methodology to get there, because there's such an increase the last few years in trying to position to get those higher draft picks, it was taking away from the games themselves, taking away from a product. And he made a very clear argument in my mind about the business ramifications of what we were dealing with."

The NBA has been looking for ways to curb tanking at all cost and have put a band aid on the problem with this new system that is still luck based. It will likely see the tanking measured kicked down the road in the season and at a different level. Under this format, teams have no incentive to win the NBA Play-In tournament and make the postseason just to be welcomed by the best in class contenders at the top of the two conferences. Perhaps during some particularly loaded draft classes, you could see seeds sitting at No. 6 by a game over the play-in squads understanding that due to injuries, a lack of talent or both pivot and enjoy the new found lottery odds for calling to the No. 9 and lower line without fully bottoming out from the start of the season to the bitter end.

"So I think the solution is good in the short term for sure. The best part about it to me is that it sunsets in three years. So we're not boxed into relying on such a luck-driven solution. Hopefully we can get to a point where we have a system that isn't tied to record entirely. But that will take some time to work that through," Presti detailed. "Now, I think people that -- you know, as a result of this solution, there will be a subset of teams that are significantly advantaged by the way that these odds are going to work and how they choose to build their teams, and I think there will be some concern about the complexity of a different type of system, you know, if we move through this and hopefully get to another version."

No one really knows how this new look NBA Draft Lottery system will play out, nor if it wil be a long-lasting fix in this league. However, the best guess is that the immediate future fortunes the Thunder but it will likely be a blip in the long term construction of the league, with the ability to sunset the lottery reform in 2029.

"But what I would say is you can have a simple solution with a lot of unpredictable consequences, or you can have a more sophisticated solution with more predictable consequences. So there's a lot of things about the NBA that are not simple. The teams are going for billions of dollars. There's an amazing amount of attention on the games, but people don't know the clear path rule. People don't know what the gather rule is really. People don't know how the second apron works," Thunder General Manager detailed. "So I think we should be concerning ourselves with what's the best solution, not what's the simplest, in anything we do. So if this turns out to be the best solution, we should stay with that. But I think there's eyes wide open to the way they -- the way the odds could fall in this, but I think Adam showed tremendous leadership and brought everybody together, and I think everybody, as they say, put their league hat on to get behind this because it's important for the product."

Time will tell just how impactful these changes will be on the Oklahoma City Thunder, much less the league, but things sit pretty right now for the Bricktown Ballers.

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