Chet Holmgren’s Outside Shooting Will Be a Swing Factor For Thunder’s Future Ceiling

Oklahoma City lost in heartbreaking fashion on Saturday night, bringing the season to a sad, swift close. The Thunder had all the tools to beat the Mavericks but couldn’t shoot when it mattered most.

Game 6 was a better offensive showing, but Oklahoma City still left too many points on the board. To score with Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Dallas’ red-hot role players, you have to consistently make open shots. Unfortunately, that’s what plagued the Thunder in all but two games this series.

The biggest example of playing great but leaving a few points out on the court is Chet Holmgren — almost all series long. Holmgren was the best defensive player on both sides by a decent margin. He impacted the game on so many different levels and always seemed to be in the positive on the box score. In Game 6 especially, Holmgren dominated the pick-and-roll and the Mavericks had no answer. Before PJ Washington drilled the game-winning free throws, Holmgren punched home a wild lob for what should have been the game-winner.

All-in-all, he was a perfect 8-of-8 from inside the 3-point line. The problem was the same story as the entire postseason. Holmgren was just 1-of-7 from 3-point range and missed a handful of very make-able shots. After seeing the high’s and low’s of his rookie season, Holmgren’s outside shooting could be the swing factor in Oklahoma City’s future ceiling.

At times he looked like the best outside shooter on the roster. As the games piled up and the season wore on, his slumps seemed unbreakable. Ultimately, Holmgren was a good shooter that became very fatigued at the end of the season. In the regular season, he shot 37% from distance, and in the playoffs that number dropped to 26%. It was the lone downfall to an otherwise terrific first playoff experience for the rookie.

“The fatigue in the season, especially like that January month back-to-backs,” Holmgren explained. “Traveling from one city to another on a back-to-back is almost impossible to recover in the way that you need to for the next game. So sometimes you're just going out there, this is what I've got tonight; I'm just going to give it all. But it's not you as your highest level.

“I wouldn't trade playing every game to sit out a couple so I didn't have to go through all that. It was all worth it.”

Oklahoma City is at its best when Holmgren is knocking down triples and spreading the defense out. That’s how the Thunder creates mismatches against other centers in the league. His outside shot will be the Thunder’s swing factor moving forward.

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