Good Outside Shooting Makes OKC Thunder Nearly Unbeatable

Oklahoma City’s outside shooting hasn’t always been a strength this season, but when it is, the defending champions rarely lose.

On Thursday night, the Thunder went into Houston looking to extend their winning streak to five games after a successful homestand. After a back-and-forth affair for much of the first three quarters, the Thunder began to gain some separation early in the final frame and continued to widen the gap throughout the closing minutes.

While the Thunder’s defense clamped down in the early stages of the fourth to set up an easy finish, a 6-of-12 performance from beyond the arc in the quarter was also critical to their success. Throughout the night, the Thunder’s ability to find separation at the 3-point line was a key piece of their win.

Finishing the night shooting 16-of-41 from deep, the Thunder’s 39% clip from outside made it nearly impossible for Houston to overcome the smothering defense Oklahoma City was playing. Given that the Thunder’s defense is likely to be an issue for opposing offenses on any given night, any time Oklahoma City can add a performance like Thursday’s from beyond the arc makes it nearly impossible to hang with.

So far this season, the Thunder have been truly elite when knocking down at least a third of their threes, boasting a 22-2 record in those contests. While the Thunder have a couple of losses in those contests, both came when their opponent shot better from deep. In a November loss in Portland, the Blazers shot 44.2% from deep compared to the Thunder’s 39.5%, and a loss in San Antonio just before Christmas saw the Spurs nail 44.4% from deep to outperform the Thunder’s 40% mark.

While the Thunder’s success can correlate to nailing at least around a third of their threes, that’s still a bit below the league average of 35.8%, where the Thunder are 20-2. While the Thunder have 24 games of nailing at least a third of their threes, they also have 18 games where they didn’t hit that mark.

Across those games, the Thunder are a somewhat more pedestrian 13-5. While they still have a good record in those contests and even have some blowouts in that category, struggling to hit from deep is the first step toward losing for the Thunder.

While it would be unreasonable to expect the Thunder to suddenly turn into an elite shooting team, finding ways to limit their brickfests in the postseason will be crucial to another title run. Last postseason, the Thunder were 10-3 when shooting at least 33.3% from deep and 6-4 when they couldn’t hit that mark.

Of course, it’s not like 33% is a magic guaranteed number that determines a win or a loss. Both of Oklahoma City’s Game 1 losses came when shooting above that mark, and both of its Game 7 wins came when shooting under it, but the numbers still clearly show that the Thunder go from a great team to a near-unbeatable juggernaut when the threes start falling.